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Observation and Experiment

Observation and Experiment Author Paul R. Rosenbaum
ISBN-10 9780674983243
Release 2017-08-14
Pages 400
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In the face of conflicting claims about some treatments, behaviors, and policies, the question arises: What is the most scientifically rigorous way to draw conclusions about cause and effect in the study of humans? In this introduction to causal inference, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through real-world examples.

An Introduction to Causal Inference

An Introduction to Causal Inference Author Judea Pearl
ISBN-10 1507894295
Release 2015-02-08
Pages 94
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This book summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underlie all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: those about (1) the effects of potential interventions, (2) probabilities of counterfactuals, and (3) direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation.

Causal Inference in Statistics

Causal Inference in Statistics Author Judea Pearl
ISBN-10 9781119186854
Release 2016-02-03
Pages 160
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Many of the concepts and terminology surrounding modern causal inference can be quite intimidating to the novice. Judea Pearl presents a book ideal for beginners in statistics, providing a comprehensive introduction to the field of causality. Examples from classical statistics are presented throughout to demonstrate the need for causality in resolving decision-making dilemmas posed by data. Causal methods are also compared to traditional statistical methods, whilst questions are provided at the end of each section to aid student learning.

Causal Inference in Statistics Social and Biomedical Sciences

Causal Inference in Statistics  Social  and Biomedical Sciences Author Guido W. Imbens
ISBN-10 9780521885881
Release 2015-04-06
Pages 625
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This text presents statistical methods for studying causal effects and discusses how readers can assess such effects in simple randomized experiments.


Causality Author Judea Pearl
ISBN-10 9781139643986
Release 2009-09-14
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Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

Elements of Causal Inference

Elements of Causal Inference Author Jonas Peters
ISBN-10 9780262037310
Release 2017-11-22
Pages 288
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The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.

Explanation in Causal Inference

Explanation in Causal Inference Author Tyler VanderWeele
ISBN-10 9780199325870
Release 2015
Pages 706
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"A comprehensive book on methods for mediation and interaction. The only book to approach this topic from the perspective of causal inference. Numerous software tools provided. Easy-to-read and accessible. Examples drawn from diverse fields. An essential reference for anyone conducting empirical research in the biomedical or social sciences"--

Matched Sampling for Causal Effects

Matched Sampling for Causal Effects Author Donald B. Rubin
ISBN-10 9781139458504
Release 2006-09-04
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Matched sampling is often used to help assess the causal effect of some exposure or intervention, typically when randomized experiments are not available or cannot be conducted. This book presents a selection of Donald B. Rubin's research articles on matched sampling, from the early 1970s, when the author was one of the major researchers involved in establishing the field, to recent contributions to this now extremely active area. The articles include fundamental theoretical studies that have become classics, important extensions, and real applications that range from breast cancer treatments to tobacco litigation to studies of criminal tendencies. They are organized into seven parts, each with an introduction by the author that provides historical and personal context and discusses the relevance of the work today. A concluding essay offers advice to investigators designing observational studies. The book provides an accessible introduction to the study of matched sampling and will be an indispensable reference for students and researchers.

The Book of Why

The Book of Why Author Judea Pearl
ISBN-10 9780465097616
Release 2018-05-15
Pages 432
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How the study of causality revolutionized science and the world "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Counterfactuals and Causal Inference

Counterfactuals and Causal Inference Author Stephen L. Morgan
ISBN-10 9781107065079
Release 2014-11-24
Pages 524
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This new edition aims to convince social scientists to take a counterfactual approach to the core questions of their fields.

Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research

Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research Author Stephen L. Morgan
ISBN-10 9789400760943
Release 2013-04-22
Pages 424
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What constitutes a causal explanation, and must an explanation be causal? What warrants a causal inference, as opposed to a descriptive regularity? What techniques are available to detect when causal effects are present, and when can these techniques be used to identify the relative importance of these effects? What complications do the interactions of individuals create for these techniques? When can mixed methods of analysis be used to deepen causal accounts? Must causal claims include generative mechanisms, and how effective are empirical methods designed to discover them? The Handbook of Causal Analysis for Social Research tackles these questions with nineteen chapters from leading scholars in sociology, statistics, public health, computer science, and human development.

Targeted Learning

Targeted Learning Author Mark J. van der Laan
ISBN-10 1441997822
Release 2011-06-17
Pages 628
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The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies.

Statistical Models and Causal Inference

Statistical Models and Causal Inference Author David A. Freedman
ISBN-10 9780521195003
Release 2010
Pages 399
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David A. Freedman presents a definitive synthesis of his approach to statistical modeling and causal inference in the social sciences.

Quantitative Social Science

Quantitative Social Science Author Kosuke Imai
ISBN-10 9781400885251
Release 2017-02-27
Pages 432
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Quantitative analysis is an increasingly essential skill for social science research, yet students in the social sciences and related areas typically receive little training in it—or if they do, they usually end up in statistics classes that offer few insights into their field. This textbook is a practical introduction to data analysis and statistics written especially for undergraduates and beginning graduate students in the social sciences and allied fields, such as economics, sociology, public policy, and data science. Quantitative Social Science engages directly with empirical analysis, showing students how to analyze data using the R programming language and to interpret the results—it encourages hands-on learning, not paper-and-pencil statistics. More than forty data sets taken directly from leading quantitative social science research illustrate how data analysis can be used to answer important questions about society and human behavior. Proven in the classroom, this one-of-a-kind textbook features numerous additional data analysis exercises and interactive R programming exercises, and also comes with supplementary teaching materials for instructors. Written especially for students in the social sciences and allied fields, including economics, sociology, public policy, and data science Provides hands-on instruction using R programming, not paper-and-pencil statistics Includes more than forty data sets from actual research for students to test their skills on Covers data analysis concepts such as causality, measurement, and prediction, as well as probability and statistical tools Features a wealth of supplementary exercises, including additional data analysis exercises and interactive programming exercises Offers a solid foundation for further study Comes with additional course materials online, including notes, sample code, exercises and problem sets with solutions, and lecture slides

Causation Prediction and Search

Causation  Prediction  and Search Author Peter Spirtes
ISBN-10 9781461227489
Release 2012-12-06
Pages 530
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This book is intended for anyone, regardless of discipline, who is interested in the use of statistical methods to help obtain scientific explanations or to predict the outcomes of actions, experiments or policies. Much of G. Udny Yule's work illustrates a vision of statistics whose goal is to investigate when and how causal influences may be reliably inferred, and their comparative strengths estimated, from statistical samples. Yule's enterprise has been largely replaced by Ronald Fisher's conception, in which there is a fundamental cleavage between experimental and non experimental inquiry, and statistics is largely unable to aid in causal inference without randomized experimental trials. Every now and then members of the statistical community express misgivings about this turn of events, and, in our view, rightly so. Our work represents a return to something like Yule's conception of the enterprise of theoretical statistics and its potential practical benefits. If intellectual history in the 20th century had gone otherwise, there might have been a discipline to which our work belongs. As it happens, there is not. We develop material that belongs to statistics, to computer science, and to philosophy; the combination may not be entirely satisfactory for specialists in any of these subjects. We hope it is nonetheless satisfactory for its purpose.

Causal Models

Causal Models Author Steven Sloman
ISBN-10 9780198040378
Release 2005-07-28
Pages 224
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Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. In cognitive terms, how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: Thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. The book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation.

Design of Observational Studies

Design of Observational Studies Author Paul R. Rosenbaum
ISBN-10 9781441912138
Release 2009-10-22
Pages 384
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An observational study is an empiric investigation of effects caused by treatments when randomized experimentation is unethical or infeasible. Observational studies are common in most fields that study the effects of treatments on people, including medicine, economics, epidemiology, education, psychology, political science and sociology. The quality and strength of evidence provided by an observational study is determined largely by its design. Design of Observational Studies is both an introduction to statistical inference in observational studies and a detailed discussion of the principles that guide the design of observational studies. Design of Observational Studies is divided into four parts. Chapters 2, 3, and 5 of Part I cover concisely, in about one hundred pages, many of the ideas discussed in Rosenbaum’s Observational Studies (also published by Springer) but in a less technical fashion. Part II discusses the practical aspects of using propensity scores and other tools to create a matched comparison that balances many covariates. Part II includes a chapter on matching in R. In Part III, the concept of design sensitivity is used to appraise the relative ability of competing designs to distinguish treatment effects from biases due to unmeasured covariates. Part IV discusses planning the analysis of an observational study, with particular reference to Sir Ronald Fisher’s striking advice for observational studies, "make your theories elaborate." The second edition of his book, Observational Studies, was published by Springer in 2002.