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Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs

Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs Author Thomas Dyhre Nielsen
ISBN-10 9781475735024
Release 2013-06-29
Pages 268
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Bayesian networks and decision graphs are formal graphical languages for representation and communication of decision scenarios requiring reasoning under uncertainty. Their strengths are two-sided. It is easy for humans to construct and understand them, and when communicated to a computer, they can easily be compiled. The book emphasizes both the human and the computer side. It gives a thorough introduction to Bayesian networks, decision trees and influence diagrams as well as algorithms and complexity issues.



Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs

Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs Author Thomas Dyhre Nielsen
ISBN-10 0387682813
Release 2007-06-06
Pages 448
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This is a brand new edition of an essential work on Bayesian networks and decision graphs. It is an introduction to probabilistic graphical models including Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. The reader is guided through the two types of frameworks with examples and exercises, which also give instruction on how to build these models. Structured in two parts, the first section focuses on probabilistic graphical models, while the second part deals with decision graphs, and in addition to the frameworks described in the previous edition, it also introduces Markov decision process and partially ordered decision problems.



Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs

Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs Author Finn V. Jensen
ISBN-10 0387952594
Release 2001-01-01
Pages 268
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A practical guide to normative systems: Causal and bayesian networks; Building models; learning, adaptation, and tuning; Decision graphs. Algorithms ofr normative systems: Belief updating in bayesian networks; Bayesian network analysis tools; Algorithms ofr influence diagrams. List of notation.



Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams A Guide to Construction and Analysis

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams  A Guide to Construction and Analysis Author Uffe B. Kjærulff
ISBN-10 9781461451044
Release 2012-11-30
Pages 382
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Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new sections, in addition to fully-updated examples, tables, figures, and a revised appendix. Intended primarily for practitioners, this book does not require sophisticated mathematical skills or deep understanding of the underlying theory and methods nor does it discuss alternative technologies for reasoning under uncertainty. The theory and methods presented are illustrated through more than 140 examples, and exercises are included for the reader to check his or her level of understanding. The techniques and methods presented for knowledge elicitation, model construction and verification, modeling techniques and tricks, learning models from data, and analyses of models have all been developed and refined on the basis of numerous courses that the authors have held for practitioners worldwide.



Introduction to Bayesian Networks

Introduction to Bayesian Networks Author Finn V. Jensen
ISBN-10 0387915028
Release 1997-08-15
Pages 178
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Disk contains: Tool for building Bayesian networks -- Library of examples -- Library of proposed solutions to some exercises.



Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science Author Franco Taroni
ISBN-10 9781118914748
Release 2014-07-21
Pages 472
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"This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation" Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. • Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. • Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. • Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. • Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. • Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. • Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. • Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. • Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.



Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning Author Christopher M. Bishop
ISBN-10 1493938436
Release 2016-08-23
Pages 738
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This is the first textbook on pattern recognition to present the Bayesian viewpoint. The book presents approximate inference algorithms that permit fast approximate answers in situations where exact answers are not feasible. It uses graphical models to describe probability distributions when no other books apply graphical models to machine learning. No previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts is assumed. Familiarity with multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some experience in the use of probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory.



Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks Author Norman Fenton
ISBN-10 9781439809112
Release 2012-11-07
Pages 524
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Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.



Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning

Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning Author David Barber
ISBN-10 9780521518147
Release 2012-02-02
Pages 697
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A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.



Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems

Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems Author Robert G. Cowell
ISBN-10 0387718230
Release 2007-07-16
Pages 324
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Winner of the 2002 DeGroot Prize. Probabilistic expert systems are graphical networks that support the modelling of uncertainty and decisions in large complex domains, while retaining ease of calculation. Building on original research by the authors over a number of years, this book gives a thorough and rigorous mathematical treatment of the underlying ideas, structures, and algorithms, emphasizing those cases in which exact answers are obtainable. It covers both the updating of probabilistic uncertainty in the light of new evidence, and statistical inference, about unknown probabilities or unknown model structure, in the light of new data. The careful attention to detail will make this work an important reference source for all those involved in the theory and applications of probabilistic expert systems. This book was awarded the first DeGroot Prize by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis for a book making an important, timely, thorough, and notably original contribution to the statistics literature. Robert G. Cowell is a Lecturer in the Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance of the Sir John Cass Business School, City of London. He has been working on probabilistic expert systems since 1989. A. Philip Dawid is Professor of Statistics at Cambridge University. He has served as Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series B), Biometrika and Bayesian Analysis, and as President of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. He holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Bronze and in Silver, and the Snedecor Award for the Best Publication in Biometry. Steffen L. Lauritzen is Professor of Statistics at the University of Oxford. He has served as Editor of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. He holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Silver and is an Honorary Fellow of the same society. He has, jointly with David J. Spiegelhalter, received the American Statistical Association’s award for an "Outstanding Statistical Application." David J. Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University and Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge. He has published extensively on Bayesian methodology and applications, and holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Bronze and in Silver.



Bayesian Networks

Bayesian Networks Author Olivier Pourret
ISBN-10 0470994541
Release 2008-04-30
Pages 446
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Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.



Probabilistic Graphical Models

Probabilistic Graphical Models Author Daphne Koller
ISBN-10 9780262258357
Release 2009-07-31
Pages 1280
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Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.



Learning in Graphical Models

Learning in Graphical Models Author Michael Irwin Jordan
ISBN-10 0262600323
Release 1998
Pages 634
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Graphical models, a marriage between probability theory and graph theory, provide a natural tool for dealing with two problems that occur throughout applied mathematics and engineering -- uncertainty and complexity. In particular, they play an increasingly important role in the design and analysis of machine learning algorithms. Fundamental to the idea of a graphical model is the notion of modularity: a complex system is built by combining simpler parts. Probability theory serves as the glue whereby the parts are combined, ensuring that the system as a whole is consistent and providing ways to interface models to data. Graph theory provides both an intuitively appealing interface by which humans can model highly interacting sets of variables and a data structure that lends itself naturally to the design of efficient general-purpose algorithms. This book presents an in-depth exploration of issues related to learning within the graphical model formalism. Four chapters are tutorial chapters -- Robert Cowell on Inference for Bayesian Networks, David MacKay on Monte Carlo Methods, Michael I. Jordan et al. on Variational Methods, and David Heckerman on Learning with Bayesian Networks. The remaining chapters cover a wide range of topics of current research interest.



Bayesian Decision Analysis

Bayesian Decision Analysis Author Jim Q. Smith
ISBN-10 9781139491112
Release 2010-09-23
Pages
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Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.



Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems

Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems Author Robert G. Cowell
ISBN-10 0387718230
Release 2007-07-16
Pages 324
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Winner of the 2002 DeGroot Prize. Probabilistic expert systems are graphical networks that support the modelling of uncertainty and decisions in large complex domains, while retaining ease of calculation. Building on original research by the authors over a number of years, this book gives a thorough and rigorous mathematical treatment of the underlying ideas, structures, and algorithms, emphasizing those cases in which exact answers are obtainable. It covers both the updating of probabilistic uncertainty in the light of new evidence, and statistical inference, about unknown probabilities or unknown model structure, in the light of new data. The careful attention to detail will make this work an important reference source for all those involved in the theory and applications of probabilistic expert systems. This book was awarded the first DeGroot Prize by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis for a book making an important, timely, thorough, and notably original contribution to the statistics literature. Robert G. Cowell is a Lecturer in the Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance of the Sir John Cass Business School, City of London. He has been working on probabilistic expert systems since 1989. A. Philip Dawid is Professor of Statistics at Cambridge University. He has served as Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series B), Biometrika and Bayesian Analysis, and as President of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. He holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Bronze and in Silver, and the Snedecor Award for the Best Publication in Biometry. Steffen L. Lauritzen is Professor of Statistics at the University of Oxford. He has served as Editor of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. He holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Silver and is an Honorary Fellow of the same society. He has, jointly with David J. Spiegelhalter, received the American Statistical Association’s award for an "Outstanding Statistical Application." David J. Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University and Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge. He has published extensively on Bayesian methodology and applications, and holds the Royal Statistical Society Guy Medal in Bronze and in Silver.



Learning Bayesian Networks

Learning Bayesian Networks Author Richard E. Neapolitan
ISBN-10 STANFORD:36105111872318
Release 2004
Pages 674
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For courses in Bayesian Networks or Advanced Networking focusing on Bayesian networks found in departments of Computer Science, Computer Engineering and Electrical Engineering. Also appropriate as a supplementary text in courses on Expert Systems, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence where the topic of Bayesian Networks is covered. This book provides an accessible and unified discussion of Bayesian networks. It includes discussions of topics related to the areas of artificial intelligence, expert systems and decision analysis, the fields in which Bayesian networks are frequently applied. The author discusses both methods for doing inference in Bayesian networks and influence diagrams. The book also covers the Bayesian method for learning the values of discrete and continuous parameters. Both the Bayesian and constraint-based methods for learning structure are discussed in detail.



Spin Glasses and Complexity

Spin Glasses and Complexity Author Daniel L. Stein
ISBN-10 9781400845637
Release 2013-01-15
Pages 336
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Spin glasses are disordered magnetic systems that have led to the development of mathematical tools with an array of real-world applications, from airline scheduling to neural networks. Spin Glasses and Complexity offers the most concise, engaging, and accessible introduction to the subject, fully explaining what spin glasses are, why they are important, and how they are opening up new ways of thinking about complexity. This one-of-a-kind guide to spin glasses begins by explaining the fundamentals of order and symmetry in condensed matter physics and how spin glasses fit into--and modify--this framework. It then explores how spin-glass concepts and ideas have found applications in areas as diverse as computational complexity, biological and artificial neural networks, protein folding, immune response maturation, combinatorial optimization, and social network modeling. Providing an essential overview of the history, science, and growing significance of this exciting field, Spin Glasses and Complexity also features a forward-looking discussion of what spin glasses may teach us in the future about complex systems. This is a must-have book for students and practitioners in the natural and social sciences, with new material even for the experts.