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Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts Author Richard W. Katz
ISBN-10 0521435714
Release 2005-09-08
Pages 240
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Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.



Predictability of Weather and Climate

Predictability of Weather and Climate Author Tim Palmer
ISBN-10 9781139458207
Release 2006-07-27
Pages
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The topic of predictability in weather and climate has advanced significantly in recent years, both in understanding the phenomena that affect weather and climate and in techniques used to model and forecast them. This book, first published in 2006, brings together some of the world's leading experts on predicting weather and climate. It addresses predictability from the theoretical to the practical, on timescales from days to decades. Topics such as the predictability of weather phenomena, coupled ocean-atmosphere systems and anthropogenic climate change are among those included. Ensemble systems for forecasting predictability are discussed extensively. Ed Lorenz, father of chaos theory, makes a contribution to theoretical analysis with a previously unpublished paper. This well-balanced volume will be a valuable resource for many years. High-calibre chapter authors and extensive subject coverage make it valuable to people with an interest in weather and climate forecasting and environmental science, from graduate students to researchers.



Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Author Thomas Tomkins Warner
ISBN-10 9781139494311
Release 2010-12-02
Pages
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This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.



Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Making Climate Forecasts Matter Author National Research Council
ISBN-10 9780309173407
Release 1999-05-27
Pages 192
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El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.



Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems Author Graeme L. Hammer
ISBN-10 0792362705
Release 2000-09-30
Pages 472
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Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to: farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems); regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna). Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.



The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting Author Michael P. Clements
ISBN-10 9780195398649
Release 2011-07-08
Pages 712
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Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.



Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification Author Ian T. Jolliffe
ISBN-10 9781119961079
Release 2012-01-25
Pages 288
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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).



Weather and Climate Resilience

Weather and Climate Resilience Author David P. Rogers
ISBN-10 9781464800276
Release 2013-10-07
Pages 152
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This book articulates why services from national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) are important to improve nations' weather and climate resilience. It provides a baseline vision for improving NMHSs, identifies obstacles, and recommends World Bank strategies.



Satellite Observations of the Earth s Environment

Satellite Observations of the Earth s Environment Author Committee on NASA-NOAA Transition from Research to Operations
ISBN-10 9780309087490
Release 2003-06-03
Pages 182
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This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Earth's environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocks-lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instance-and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Earth's Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.



Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast Author Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
ISBN-10 9780309102551
Release 2006-10-09
Pages 124
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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.



Climate Prediction and Agriculture

Climate Prediction and Agriculture Author Mannava V.K. Sivakumar
ISBN-10 9783540446507
Release 2007-05-26
Pages 306
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Based on an International Workshop held in Geneva in 2005, this book reviews the advances made so far in seasonal climate predictions and their applications for management and decision-making in agriculture. It also identifies the challenges to be addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhance operational applications of climate predictions in agriculture, especially in developing countries.



Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia

Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia Author
ISBN-10 9780821375860
Release 2008-01-01
Pages 79
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Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. Worldwide, the accuracy and value of weather and climate services are rising, bringing great economic benefits. However, many national hydrometeorological services in Europe and Central Asia are in decline. As a result, these potential gains are often missed. Much more could be done to mitigate weather disasters, support the productivity of smallholding and commercial agriculture, conserve energy, and promote safe aviation and transport by road and rail. Although capacity deficiencies are serious, they could be remedied significantly by relatively modest-but sustained-investments. Chapter 1 describes the worldwide growth in weather forecasting skill, presents principal issues and questions in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), and sets out the study's organization. Chapter 2 assesses the needs of the key sectoral clients of the national hydrometeorological services in the region. Chapter 3 addresses ECA's natural weather and climate issues: vulnerability to transboundary weather events, extreme weather, variable weather, and projected climate change. Chapter 4 presents the forecasting workflow, and then presents key regional and national capacity gaps. Chapter 5 discusses ways to estimate the economic benefit of existing and upgraded forecasting capacity. This study is part of an ongoing Regional Working Paper Series sponsored by the Chief Economist's Office in the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank.



Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk

Seasonal Climate  Forecasting and Managing Risk Author Alberto Troccoli
ISBN-10 9781402069925
Release 2008-01-29
Pages 467
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Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.



Weather Climate Services for the Energy Industry

Weather   Climate Services for the Energy Industry Author Alberto Troccoli
ISBN-10 9783319684185
Release 2018-01-03
Pages 197
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This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.



Dynamics and Predictability of Large Scale High Impact Weather and Climate Events

Dynamics and Predictability of Large Scale  High Impact Weather and Climate Events Author Jianping Li
ISBN-10 9781107071421
Release 2016-03-24
Pages 370
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This book examines the dynamical processes between high-impact weather and climate events, and between atmospheric and ocean phenomena.



Does the Weather Really Matter

Does the Weather Really Matter Author William James Burroughs
ISBN-10 0521017440
Release 2005-10-13
Pages 244
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Tracing the weather's impact on the political and economic structures of various peoples throughout history, the author explores the unpredictable nature of the climate and how it may limit human attempts to plan for the future. UP.



Hurricanes of the North Atlantic

Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Author James B. Elsner
ISBN-10 0195352289
Release 1999-06-10
Pages 512
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Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.