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Modelling Extremal Events

Modelling Extremal Events Author Paul Embrechts
ISBN-10 3540609318
Release 2013-01-02
Pages 648
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"A reader's first impression on leafing through this book is of the large number of graphs and diagrams, used to illustrate shapes of distributions...and to show real data examples in various ways. A closer reading reveals a nice mix of theory and applications, with the copious graphical illustrations alluded to. Such a mixture is of course dear to the heart of the applied probabilist/statistician, and should impress even the most ardent theorists." --MATHEMATICAL REVIEWS



Heavy Tail Phenomena

Heavy Tail Phenomena Author Sidney I. Resnick
ISBN-10 9780387242729
Release 2007
Pages 404
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This comprehensive text gives an interesting and useful blend of the mathematical, probabilistic and statistical tools used in heavy-tail analysis. Heavy tails are characteristic of many phenomena where the probability of a single huge value impacts heavily. Record-breaking insurance losses, financial-log returns, files sizes stored on a server, transmission rates of files are all examples of heavy-tailed phenomena. Key features: * Unique text devoted to heavy-tails * Emphasizes both probability modeling and statistical methods for fitting models. Most treatments focus on one or the other but not both * Presents broad applicability of heavy-tails to the fields of data networks, finance (e.g., value-at- risk), insurance, and hydrology * Clear, efficient and coherent exposition, balancing theory and actual data to show the applicability and limitations of certain methods * Examines in detail the mathematical properties of the methodologies as well as their implementation in Splus or R statistical languages * Exposition driven by numerous examples and exercises Prerequisites for the reader include a prior course in stochastic processes and probability, some statistical background, some familiarity with time series analysis, and ability to use (or at least to learn) a statistics package such as R or Splus. This work will serve second-year graduate students and researchers in the areas of applied mathematics, statistics, operations research, electrical engineering, and economics.



Extreme Value Theory

Extreme Value Theory Author Laurens de Haan
ISBN-10 9780387344713
Release 2007-12-09
Pages 418
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Focuses on theoretical results along with applications All the main topics covering the heart of the subject are introduced to the reader in a systematic fashion Concentration is on the probabilistic and statistical aspects of extreme values Excellent introduction to extreme value theory at the graduate level, requiring only some mathematical maturity



Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values Author Rolf-Dieter Reiss
ISBN-10 9783764373993
Release 2007-08-08
Pages 511
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Statistical analysis of extreme data is vital to many disciplines including hydrology, insurance, finance, engineering and environmental sciences. This book provides a self-contained introduction to parametric modeling, exploratory analysis and statistical interference for extreme values. For this Third Edition, the entire text has been thoroughly updated and rearranged to meet contemporary requirements, with new sections and chapters address such topics as dependencies, the conditional analysis and the multivariate modeling of extreme data. New chapters include An Overview of Reduced-Bias Estimation; The Spectral Decomposition Methodology; About Tail Independence; and Extreme Value Statistics of Dependent Random Variables.



An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values

An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values Author Stuart Coles
ISBN-10 9781447136750
Release 2013-11-27
Pages 209
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Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.



Extreme Value Distributions

Extreme Value Distributions Author Samuel Kotz
ISBN-10 9781860944024
Release 2000
Pages 185
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This important book provides an up-to-date comprehensive and down-to-earth survey of the theory and practice of extreme value distributions OCo one of the most prominent success stories of modern applied probability and statistics. Originated by E J Gumbel in the early forties as a tool for predicting floods, extreme value distributions evolved during the last 50 years into a coherent theory with applications in practically all fields of human endeavor where maximal or minimal values (the so-called extremes) are of relevance. The book is of usefulness both for a beginner with a limited probabilistic background and to expert in the field. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1.1: Historical Survey (139 KB). Chapter 1.2: The Three Types of Extreme Value Distributions (146 KB). Chapter 1.3: Limiting Distributions and Domain of Attraction (210 KB). Chapter 1.4: Distribution Function and Moments of Type 1 Distribution (160 KB). Chapter 1.5: Order Statistics, Record Values and Characterizations (175 KB). Contents: Univariate Extreme Value Distributions; Generalized Extreme Value Distributions; Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions. Readership: Applied probabilists, applied statisticians, environmental scientists, climatologists, industrial engineers and management experts."



Laws of Small Numbers Extremes and Rare Events

Laws of Small Numbers  Extremes and Rare Events Author Michael Falk
ISBN-10 9783034877916
Release 2013-11-11
Pages 378
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Since the publication of the first edition of this seminar book, the theory and applications of extremes and rare events have seen increasing interest. Laws of Small Numbers gives a mathematically oriented development of the theory of rare events underlying various applications. The new edition incorporates numerous new results on about 130 additional pages. Part II, added in the second edition, discusses recent developments in multivariate extreme value theory.



Financial Derivatives

Financial Derivatives Author Jamil Baz
ISBN-10 052181510X
Release 2004-01-12
Pages 338
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This book offers a complete, succinct account of the principles of financial derivatives pricing. The first chapter provides readers with an intuitive exposition of basic random calculus. Concepts such as volatility and time, random walks, geometric Brownian motion, and Ito's lemma are discussed heuristically. The second chapter develops generic pricing techniques for assets and derivatives, determining the notion of a stochastic discount factor or pricing kernel, and then uses this concept to price conventional and exotic derivatives. The third chapter applies the pricing concepts to the special case of interest rate markets, namely, bonds and swaps, and discusses factor models and term structure consistent models. The fourth chapter deals with a variety of mathematical topics that underlie derivatives pricing and portfolio allocation decisions such as mean-reverting processes and jump processes and discusses related tools of stochastic calculus such as Kolmogorov equations, martingale techniques, stochastic control, and partial differential equations.



Extreme Events in Finance

Extreme Events in Finance Author Francois Longin
ISBN-10 9781118650196
Release 2016-10-17
Pages 640
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A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: • Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management • Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets • Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study • Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance. François Longin, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Finance at ESSEC Business School, France. He has been working on the applications of extreme value theory to financial markets for many years, and his research has been applied by financial institutions in the risk management area including market, credit, and operational risks. His research works can be found in scientific journals such as The Journal of Finance. Dr. Longin is currently a financial consultant with expertise covering risk management for financial institutions and portfolio management for asset management firms.



Sociophysics

Sociophysics Author Serge Galam
ISBN-10 9781461420316
Release 2012-02-10
Pages 439
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Do humans behave much like atoms? Sociophysics, which uses tools and concepts from the physics of disordered matter to describe some aspects of social and political behavior, answers in the affirmative. But advocating the use of models from the physical sciences to understand human behavior could be perceived as tantamount to dismissing the existence of human free will and also enabling those seeking manipulative skills . This thought-provoking book argues it is just the contrary. Indeed, future developments and evaluation will either show sociophysics to be inadequate, thus supporting the hypothesis that people can primarily be considered to be free agents, or valid, thus opening the path to a radically different vision of society and personal responsibility. This book attempts to explain why and how humans behave much like atoms, at least in some aspects of their collective lives, and then proposes how this knowledge can serve as a unique key to a dramatic leap forwards in achieving more social freedom in the real world. At heart, sociophysics and this book are about better comprehending the richness and potential of our social interaction, and so distancing ourselves from inanimate atoms.



Statistics of Extremes

Statistics of Extremes Author E. J. Gumbel
ISBN-10 9780486154480
Release 2012-04-27
Pages 400
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This classic text covers order statistics and their exceedances; exact distribution of extremes; the 1st asymptotic distribution; uses of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd asymptotes; more. 1958 edition. Includes 44 tables and 97 graphs.



Non Life Insurance Mathematics

Non Life Insurance Mathematics Author Thomas Mikosch
ISBN-10 9783540882336
Release 2009-04-21
Pages 432
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"Offers a mathematical introduction to non-life insurance and, at the same time, to a multitude of applied stochastic processes. It gives detailed discussions of the fundamental models for claim sizes, claim arrivals, the total claim amount, and their probabilistic properties....The reader gets to know how the underlying probabilistic structures allow one to determine premiums in a portfolio or in an individual policy." --Zentralblatt für Didaktik der Mathematik



Birth of a Theorem

Birth of a Theorem Author Cédric Villani
ISBN-10 9780374710231
Release 2015-04-14
Pages 272
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In 2010, French mathematician Cédric Villani received the Fields Medal, the most coveted prize in mathematics, in recognition of a proof which he devised with his close collaborator Clément Mouhot to explain one of the most surprising theories in classical physics. Birth of a Theorem is Villani's own account of the years leading up to the award. It invites readers inside the mind of a great mathematician as he wrestles with the most important work of his career. But you don't have to understand nonlinear Landau damping to love Birth of a Theorem. It doesn't simplify or overexplain; rather, it invites readers into collaboration. Villani's diaries, emails, and musings enmesh you in the process of discovery. You join him in unproductive lulls and late-night breakthroughs. You're privy to the dining-hall conversations at the world's greatest research institutions. Villani shares his favorite songs, his love of manga, and the imaginative stories he tells his children. In mathematics, as in any creative work, it is the thinker's whole life that propels discovery—and with Birth of a Theorem, Cédric Villani welcomes you into his.



Models Behaving Badly

Models Behaving Badly Author Emanuel Derman
ISBN-10 9781439165010
Release 2011-10-25
Pages 240
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Now in paperback, “a compelling, accessible, and provocative piece of work that forces us to question many of our assumptions” (Gillian Tett, author of Fool’s Gold). Quants, physicists working on Wall Street as quantitative analysts, have been widely blamed for triggering financial crises with their complex mathematical models. Their formulas were meant to allow Wall Street to prosper without risk. But in this penetrating insider’s look at the recent economic collapse, Emanuel Derman—former head quant at Goldman Sachs—explains the collision between mathematical modeling and economics and what makes financial models so dangerous. Though such models imitate the style of physics and employ the language of mathematics, theories in physics aim for a description of reality—but in finance, models can shoot only for a very limited approximation of reality. Derman uses his firsthand experience in financial theory and practice to explain the complicated tangles that have paralyzed the economy. Models.Behaving.Badly. exposes Wall Street’s love affair with models, and shows us why nobody will ever be able to write a model that can encapsulate human behavior.



Elementary Stochastic Calculus with Finance in View

Elementary Stochastic Calculus with Finance in View Author Thomas Mikosch
ISBN-10 9810235437
Release 1998
Pages 212
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Modelling with the Ito integral or stochastic differential equations has become increasingly important in various applied fields, including physics, biology, chemistry and finance. However, stochastic calculus is based on a deep mathematical theory. This book is suitable for the reader without a deep mathematical background. It gives an elementary introduction to that area of probability theory, without burdening the reader with a great deal of measure theory. Applications are taken from stochastic finance. In particular, the Black -- Scholes option pricing formula is derived. The book can serve as a text for a course on stochastic calculus for non-mathematicians or as elementary reading material for anyone who wants to learn about Ito calculus and/or stochastic finance.



The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion

The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion Author Leonard C. MacLean
ISBN-10 9789814293495
Release 2011
Pages 853
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This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.



The Science of Conjecture

The Science of Conjecture Author James Franklin
ISBN-10 9781421418810
Release 2015-07-09
Pages 520
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How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk. -- Giora Hon