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Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management

Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management Author Dale Lehman
ISBN-10 9781439855546
Release 2016-04-19
Pages 284
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Risk analytics is developing rapidly, and analysts in the field need material that is theoretically sound as well as practical and straightforward. A one-stop resource for quantitative risk analysis, Practical Spreadsheet Risk Modeling for Management dispenses with the use of complex mathematics, concentrating on how powerful techniques and methods can be used correctly within a spreadsheet-based environment. Highlights Covers important topics for modern risk analysis, such as frequency-severity modeling and modeling of expert opinion Keeps mathematics to a minimum while covering fairly advanced topics through the use of powerful software tools Contains an unusually diverse selection of topics, including explicit treatment of frequency-severity modeling, copulas, parameter and model uncertainty, volatility modeling in time series, Markov chains, Bayesian modeling, stochastic dominance, and extended treatment of modeling expert opinion End-of-chapter exercises span eight application areas illustrating the broad application of risk analysis tools with the use of data from real-world examples and case studies This book is written for anyone interested in conducting applied risk analysis in business, engineering, environmental planning, public policy, medicine, or virtually any field amenable to spreadsheet modeling. The authors provide practical case studies along with detailed instruction and illustration of the features of ModelRisk®, the most advanced risk modeling spreadsheet software currently available. If you intend to use spreadsheets for decision-supporting analysis, rather than merely as placeholders for numbers, then this is the resource for you.

Correlation Risk Modeling and Management

Correlation Risk Modeling and Management Author Gunter Meissner
ISBN-10 9781118796894
Release 2013-12-19
Pages 350
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A thorough guide to correlation risk and its growing importance in global financial markets Ideal for anyone studying for CFA, PRMIA, CAIA, or other certifications, Correlation Risk Modeling and Management is the first rigorous guide to the topic of correlation risk. A relatively overlooked type of risk until it caused major unexpected losses during the financial crisis of 2007 through 2009, correlation risk has become a major focus of the risk management departments in major financial institutions, particularly since Basel III specifically addressed correlation risk with new regulations. This offers a rigorous explanation of the topic, revealing new and updated approaches to modelling and risk managing correlation risk. Offers comprehensive coverage of a topic of increasing importance in the financial world Includes the Basel III correlation framework Features interactive models in Excel/VBA, an accompanying website with further materials, and problems and questions at the end of each chapter

Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products

Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products Author Shadreck Mapfumo
ISBN-10 9781464810497
Release 2017-04-13
Pages 312
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Named peril index insurance has great potential to address unmet risk management needs for agricultural insurance in developing economies, potentially contributing to increased agricultural sustainability and improved food security. However, the development and appraisal of index insurance business lines is not without challenges. Insurers must rigorously evaluate the quality of the products they offer and take care to ensure that distributors and policyholders understand the benefits and limits of the purchased coverage. Without these important steps to ensure responsible insurance practices, insurers can damage the implementation and potential of index insurance in the market. Risk Modeling for Appraising Named Peril Index Insurance Products: A Guide for Practitioners helps stakeholders in the named peril index insurance industry appraise new and existing products. Part 1 of the guide provides a summary of the insights and decisions required for the insurer to make an informed decision to launch and expand an index insurance business line. Insurance managers are the primary audience for part 1. Part 2 provides a step-by-step guide to calculating the decision metrics used by the insurance manager in part 1. These metrics are calculated using probabilistic modeling that provides insights into risks related to the index insurance product. Actuarial analysts are the primary audience for part 2. In an increasingly competitive insurance market, creative product development and imaginative business strategies are becoming the norm. This guide will help emerging market insurers who seek to stay on the cutting edge to successfully and sustainably penetrate new market segments.

Practical risk assessment for project management

Practical risk assessment for project management Author Stephen Grey
ISBN-10 047193979X
Release 1995
Pages 140
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In the estimating, planning and management of any project, large or small, an understanding of the impact of risk is critical. This book explains how the growing number of people choosing to or forced to organise their work as projects can make realistic assessments of the uncertainty affecting costs, timescale and revenue, before commitments are made. A clear analysis of the role of uncertainty is combined in this concise and practical handbook with simple, cost-effective techniques for measuring and modelling the overall risk to a project's budget and schedule. There is advice and help here for the whole project team, including project managers; bid managers; project sales professionals; planners; estimators; managers running a project-based business; and consultants and auditors advising a projects business. Drawn from the author's extensive experience on projects ranging in scale from a few man-months to hundreds of man-years, the book will beelevant to anyone involved in a project-based business. Examples are presented as simple models, built in spreadsheets using the @Risk software package. No more than basic knowledge of Lotus 1-2-3?? or Excel?? will be required by the reader.

Practical Financial Modelling

Practical Financial Modelling Author Jonathan Swan
ISBN-10 9780081005880
Release 2015-07-28
Pages 336
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Practical Financial Modelling, 3e is a book on model development and model assurance. It enhances the modelling process by emphasizing controls and checks for accuracy and reliability. New content on validation and verification, model use and sensitivity analysis is presented alongside a modelling methodology that underpins the various proprietary standards used in financial modelling today. It provides more details than other books and yet is general enough for applying its methodology to many applications. This book isn’t just about the details of building cash flow models, it’s about building better cash flow models. This new edition increases the number of worked examples and introduces new material on the audit sheet and audit workbook methodologies, and the delta sheet approach to sensitivity analysis. It provides the developer with a toolkit of modelling techniques and a framework of error controls to reduce the risk of spreadsheet error. The methodology and structure conforms with the modelling principles defined by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales; and the model assurance processes ensure compliance with the UK public sector Macpherson Report and regulatory requirements such as Sarbanes-Oxley.

Practical Management Science

Practical Management Science Author Wayne L. Winston
ISBN-10 9781337406659
Release 2018-01-01
Pages 50
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Take full advantage of the power of spreadsheet modeling with the guidance in PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 6E, geared entirely to Excel 2016. This edition integrates modeling into all functional areas of business -- finance, marketing, operations management -- using real examples and real data. The book emphasizes applied, relevant learning while presenting the right amount of theory to ensure readers gain a strong foundation. Exercises offer practical, hands-on experience working with the methodologies. The authors focus on modeling rather than algebraic formulations or memorization of particular models. This edition provides new and updated cases as well as a new chapter on data mining. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Operational Risk

Operational Risk Author Harry H. Panjer
ISBN-10 9780470051306
Release 2006-10-13
Pages 448
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Discover how to optimize business strategies from both qualitative and quantitative points of view Operational Risk: Modeling Analytics is organized around the principle that the analysis of operational risk consists, in part, of the collection of data and the building of mathematical models to describe risk. This book is designed to provide risk analysts with a framework of the mathematical models and methods used in the measurement and modeling of operational risk in both the banking and insurance sectors. Beginning with a foundation for operational risk modeling and a focus on the modeling process, the book flows logically to discussion of probabilistic tools for operational risk modeling and statistical methods for calibrating models of operational risk. Exercises are included in chapters involving numerical computations for students' practice and reinforcement of concepts. Written by Harry Panjer, one of the foremost authorities in the world on risk modeling and its effects in business management, this is the first comprehensive book dedicated to the quantitative assessment of operational risk using the tools of probability, statistics, and actuarial science. In addition to providing great detail of the many probabilistic and statistical methods used in operational risk, this book features: * Ample exercises to further elucidate the concepts in the text * Definitive coverage of distribution functions and related concepts * Models for the size of losses * Models for frequency of loss * Aggregate loss modeling * Extreme value modeling * Dependency modeling using copulas * Statistical methods in model selection and calibration Assuming no previous expertise in either operational risk terminology or in mathematical statistics, the text is designed for beginning graduate-level courses on risk and operational management or enterprise risk management. This book is also useful as a reference for practitioners in both enterprise risk management and risk and operational management.

Profiles in Operations Research

Profiles in Operations Research Author Arjang A. Assad
ISBN-10 1441962816
Release 2011-06-28
Pages 867
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Profiles in Operations Research: Pioneers and Innovators recounts the development of the field of Operations Research (OR), the science of decision making. The book traces the development of OR from its military origins to a mature discipline that is recognized worldwide for its contributions to managerial planning and complex global operations. Over the past six decades, OR analyses have impacted our daily lives: when making an airline or hotel reservation, waiting in line at a bank, getting the correctly blended fuel at the gas station, and ensuring that the book you are holding arrived at its destination on time. OR originated in the late 1930s when British scientists from various disciplines joined Royal Air Force officers to determine the most effective way to employ new radar technology for intercepting enemy aircraft. During World War II, similar applied research groups were formed to study, test, and evaluate military operations on both sides of the Atlantic. Their work resulted in great improvements—OR helped the Allies win the war. The scientific field that emerged from these studies was called operational research in the U.K. and operations research in the U.S. Today, OR provides a broad and powerful science to aid decision making. Profiles describes the lives and contributions of 43 OR pioneers and innovators and relates how these individuals, with varying backgrounds and diverse interests, were drawn to the nascent field of OR. The profiles also describe how OR techniques and applications expanded considerably beyond the military context to find new domains in business and industry. In addition to their scientific contributions, these profiles capture the life stories of the individuals—interwoven with personal tales, vivid vignettes, family backgrounds, and views of the mission and future of OR. Collectively, the profiles recount the fascinating story of the growth and development of a field enriched by the convergence of different disciplines. The Editors: Arjang A. Assad is Dean of the School of Management, University at Buffalo, State University of New York. Saul I. Gass is Professor Emeritus, Department of Decision, Operations & Information Technologies, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park. From the Reviews Profiles In Operations Research: Pioneers and Innovators. Book Review by Nigel Cummings: U.K. OR Society's e-journal, Inside OR., Sept 2011. "I can thoroughly recommend this book. I found it both enlighteningand undeniably gripping, so much so in fact, you may find it difficultto put it down once you have commenced reading it. Arjang A. Assad and Saul I. Gass have created a masterwork whichwill serve to immortalise [stet] the pioneers of O.R. for many years to come." *For a list of all known typos, plus further discussion on the book, please visit

Credit Risk Modeling Using Excel and VBA

Credit Risk Modeling Using Excel and VBA Author Gunter Löeffler
ISBN-10 9780470660928
Release 2011-01-31
Pages 342
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This book provides practitioners and students with an intuitive, hands-on introduction to modern credit risk modelling. Every chapter starts with an explanation of the methodology and then the authors take the reader step by step through the implementation of the methods in Excel and VBA.

Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice

Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice Author Michael Rees
ISBN-10 9781118904039
Release 2015-08-03
Pages 464
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The complete guide to the principles and practice of risk quantification for business applications. The assessment and quantification of risk provide an indispensable part of robust decision-making; to be effective, many professionals need a firm grasp of both the fundamental concepts and of the tools of the trade. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice is a comprehensive, in–depth, and practical guide that aims to help business risk managers, modelling analysts and general management to understand, conduct and use quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty modelling in their own situations. Key content areas include: Detailed descriptions of risk assessment processes, their objectives and uses, possible approaches to risk quantification, and their associated decision-benefits and organisational challenges. Principles and techniques in the design of risk models, including the similarities and differences with traditional financial models, and the enhancements that risk modelling can provide. In depth coverage of the principles and concepts in simulation methods, the statistical measurement of risk, the use and selection of probability distributions, the creation of dependency relationships, the alignment of risk modelling activities with general risk assessment processes, and a range of Excel modelling techniques. The implementation of simulation techniques using both Excel/VBA macros and the @RISK Excel add-in. Each platform may be appropriate depending on the context, whereas the core modelling concepts and risk assessment contexts are largely the same in each case. Some additional features and key benefits of using @RISK are also covered. Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice reflects the author′s many years in training and consultancy in these areas. It provides clear and complete guidance, enhanced with an expert perspective. It uses approximately one hundred practical and real-life models to demonstrate all key concepts and techniques; these are accessible on the companion website.

Interest Rate Risk Modeling

Interest Rate Risk Modeling Author Sanjay K. Nawalkha
ISBN-10 9780471737445
Release 2005-05-31
Pages 432
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The definitive guide to fixed income valuation and risk analysis The Trilogy in Fixed Income Valuation and Risk Analysis comprehensively covers the most definitive work on interest rate risk, term structure analysis, and credit risk. The first book on interest rate risk modeling examines virtually every well-known IRR model used for pricing and risk analysis of various fixed income securities and their derivatives. The companion CD-ROM contain numerous formulas and programming tools that allow readers to better model risk and value fixed income securities. This comprehensive resource provides readers with the hands-on information and software needed to succeed in this financial arena.

Simulation Modeling Using Risk

Simulation Modeling Using  Risk Author Wayne L. Winston
ISBN-10 0534264921
Release 1995-01-01
Pages 230
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This new book shows how to use Monte Carlo simulation to model and solve complex business problems in finance, operations, and marketing using @RISK. The book's timely applications include simulating the risk of derivatives, hedging with futures, analyzing investment portfolios, modeling market share, calculating optimal maintenance policies, and many others. The book also contains specific instruction in simulation concepts and modeling, making it appropriate as a textbook, supplement, or self-directed guidebook.

Spreadsheet Modeling Decision Analysis A Practical Introduction to Business Analytics

Spreadsheet Modeling   Decision Analysis  A Practical Introduction to Business Analytics Author Cliff Ragsdale
ISBN-10 9781305947412
Release 2016-12-05
Pages 864
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Written by an innovator in teaching spreadsheets and a highly regarded leader in business analytics, Cliff Ragsdale’s SPREADSHEET MODELING AND DECISION ANALYSIS: A PRACTICAL INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS ANALYTICS, 8E helps readers master important spreadsheet and business analytics skills. Readers find everything needed to become proficient in today’s most widely used business analytics techniques using Microsoft Office Excel 2016. Learning to make effective decisions in today's business world takes training and experience. Author Cliff Ragsdale guides learners through the skills needed, using the latest Excel for Windows. Readers apply what they’ve learned to real business situations with step-by-step instructions and annotated screen images that make examples easy to follow. The World of Management Science sections further demonstrates how each topic applies to a real company. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.

Pricing Risk and Performance Measurement in Practice

Pricing  Risk  and Performance Measurement in Practice Author Wolfgang Schwerdt
ISBN-10 0080923046
Release 2009-10-22
Pages 398
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How can managers increase their ability to calculate price and risk data for financial instruments while decreasing their dependence on a myriad of specific instrument variants? Wolfgang Schwerdt and Marcelle von Wendland created a simple and consistent way to handle and process large amounts of complex financial data. By means of a practical framework, their approach analyzes market and credit risk exposure of financial instruments and portfolios and calculates risk adjusted performance measures. Its emphasis on standardization yields significant improvements in speed and accuracy. Schwerdt and von Wendland's focus on practical implementation directly addresses limitations imposed by the complex and costly processing time required for advanced risk management models and pricing hundreds of thousands of securities each day. Their many examples and programming codes demonstrate how to use standards to build financial instruments, how to price them, and how to measure the risk and performance of the portfolios that include them. Feature: The authors have designed and implemented a standard for the description of financial instruments Benefit: The reader can rely on accurate and valid information about describing financial instruments Feature: The authors have developed an approach for pricing and analyzing any financial instrument using a limited set of atomic instruments Benefit: The reader can use these instruments to define and set up even very large numbers of financial instruments. Feature: The book builds a practical framework for analysing the market and credit risk exposure of financial instruments and portfolios Benefit: Readers can use this framework today in their work and identify and measure market and credit risk using a reliable method.

Elements of Financial Risk Management

Elements of Financial Risk Management Author Peter F. Christoffersen
ISBN-10 9780123744487
Release 2012
Pages 326
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The Second Edition of this best-selling book expands its advanced approach to financial risk models by covering market, credit, and integrated risk. With new data that cover the recent financial crisis, it combines Excel-based empirical exercises at the end of each chapter with online exercises so readers can use their own data. Its unified GARCH modeling approach, empirically sophisticated and relevant yet easy to implement, sets this book apart from others. Four new chapters and updated end-of-chapter questions and exercises, as well as Excel-solutions manual and PowerPoint slides, support its step-by-step approach to choosing tools and solving problems. Examines market risk, credit risk, and operational risk Provides exceptional coverage of GARCH models Features online Excel-based empirical exercises

Financial Risk Management

Financial Risk Management Author Steve L. Allen
ISBN-10 9781118226520
Release 2012-12-19
Pages 608
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A top risk management practitioner addresses the essential aspects of modern financial risk management In the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Website, market risk expert Steve Allen offers an insider's view of this discipline and covers the strategies, principles, and measurement techniques necessary to manage and measure financial risk. Fully revised to reflect today's dynamic environment and the lessons to be learned from the 2008 global financial crisis, this reliable resource provides a comprehensive overview of the entire field of risk management. Allen explores real-world issues such as proper mark-to-market valuation of trading positions and determination of needed reserves against valuation uncertainty, the structuring of limits to control risk taking, and a review of mathematical models and how they can contribute to risk control. Along the way, he shares valuable lessons that will help to develop an intuitive feel for market risk measurement and reporting. Presents key insights on how risks can be isolated, quantified, and managed from a top risk management practitioner Offers up-to-date examples of managing market and credit risk Provides an overview and comparison of the various derivative instruments and their use in risk hedging Companion Website contains supplementary materials that allow you to continue to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book Focusing on the management of those risks that can be successfully quantified, the Second Edition of Financial Risk Management + Websiteis the definitive source for managing market and credit risk.

Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling Second Edition

Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling  Second Edition Author Christian Bluhm
ISBN-10 9781584889939
Release 2016-04-19
Pages 384
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Contains Nearly 100 Pages of New Material The recent financial crisis has shown that credit risk in particular and finance in general remain important fields for the application of mathematical concepts to real-life situations. While continuing to focus on common mathematical approaches to model credit portfolios, Introduction to Credit Risk Modeling, Second Edition presents updates on model developments that have occurred since the publication of the best-selling first edition. New to the Second Edition An expanded section on techniques for the generation of loss distributions Introductory sections on new topics, such as spectral risk measures, an axiomatic approach to capital allocation, and nonhomogeneous Markov chains Updated sections on the probability of default, exposure-at-default, loss-given-default, and regulatory capital A new section on multi-period models Recent developments in structured credit The financial crisis illustrated the importance of effectively communicating model outcomes and ensuring that the variation in results is clearly understood by decision makers. The crisis also showed that more modeling and more analysis are superior to only one model. This accessible, self-contained book recommends using a variety of models to shed light on different aspects of the true nature of a credit risk problem, thereby allowing the problem to be viewed from different angles.