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Risk Analysis in Engineering

Risk Analysis in Engineering Author Mohammad Modarres
ISBN-10 9781420003499
Release 2016-04-27
Pages 424
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Based on the author’s 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication. Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.



Risk Analysis in Engineering

Risk Analysis in Engineering Author Mohammad Modarres
ISBN-10 1574447947
Release 2006-01-13
Pages 424
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Based on the author’s 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication. Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.



Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis

Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis Author Mohammad Modarres
ISBN-10 9781498745895
Release 2016-11-25
Pages 522
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This undergraduate and graduate textbook provides a practical and comprehensive overview of reliability and risk analysis techniques. Written for engineering students and practicing engineers, the book is multi-disciplinary in scope. The new edition has new topics in classical confidence interval estimation; Bayesian uncertainty analysis; models for physics-of-failure approach to life estimation; extended discussions on the generalized renewal process and optimal maintenance; and further modifications, updates, and discussions. The book includes examples to clarify technical subjects and many end of chapter exercises. PowerPoint slides and a Solutions Manual are also available.



Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Author Lee T. Ostrom
ISBN-10 9781118309636
Release 2012-06-13
Pages 416
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All the tools needed to perform a thorough risk assessment—whether you're working in insurance, forensics, engineering, or public safety Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, Risk Assessment details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. Examining not only the very nature of risks and consequences, with fascinating historical examples, the book progresses from simple to more complex risk assessment techniques used by the authors in their daily work, all presented in a form that can be readily adapted to any number of real-life situations: Ecological Risk Assessment Task Analysis Techniques Preliminary Hazards Analysis Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Human Reliability Analysis Critical Incident Technique With numerous industry-specific case studies, as well as additional case studies for risk assessments for a restaurant and a process plant, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations. Including downloadable worksheets and other useful assessment materials, as well as guidance on using PRA software, this unparalleled reference offers all the tools and techniques needed to conduct a thorough and accurate assessment of risk.



Probabilistic Physics of Failure Approach to Reliability

Probabilistic Physics of Failure Approach to Reliability Author Mohammad Modarres
ISBN-10 9781119388647
Release 2017-06-23
Pages 288
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The book presents highly technical approaches to the probabilistic physics of failure analysis and applications to accelerated life and degradation testing to reliability prediction and assessment. Beside reviewing a select set of important failure mechanisms, the book covers basic and advanced methods of performing accelerated life test and accelerated degradation tests and analyzing the test data. The book includes a large number of very useful examples to help readers understand complicated methods described. Finally, MATLAB, R and OpenBUGS computer scripts are provided and discussed to support complex computational probabilistic analyses introduced.



Risk Modeling Assessment and Management

Risk Modeling  Assessment  and Management Author Yacov Y. Haimes
ISBN-10 9781119017998
Release 2015-07-17
Pages 720
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Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.



Analytical Methods for Risk Management

Analytical Methods for Risk Management Author Paul R. Garvey
ISBN-10 1420011391
Release 2008-10-20
Pages 282
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A Text on the Foundation Processes, Analytical Principles, and Implementation Practices of Engineering Risk Management Drawing from the author’s many years of hands-on experience in the field, Analytical Methods for Risk Management: A Systems Engineering Perspectivepresents the foundation processes and analytical practices for identifying, analyzing, measuring, and managing risk in traditional systems, systems-of-systems, and enterprise systems. Balances Risk and Decision Theory with Case Studies and Exercises After an introduction to engineering risk management, the book covers the fundamental axioms and properties of probability as well as key aspects of decision analysis, such as preference theory and risk/utility functions. It concludes with a series of essays on major analytical topics, including how to identify, write, and represent risks; prioritize risks in terms of their potential impacts on a systems project; and monitor progress when mitigating a risk’s potential adverse effects. The author also examines technical performance measures and how they can combine into an index to track an engineering system’s overall performance risk. In addition, he discusses risk management in the context of engineering complex, large-scale enterprise systems. Applies Various Methods to Risk Engineering and Analysis Problems This practical guide enables an understanding of which processes and analytical techniques are valid and how they are best applied to specific systems engineering environments. After reading this book, you will be on your way to managing risk on both traditional and advanced engineering systems.



Quantitative Risk Management

Quantitative Risk Management Author Alexander J. McNeil
ISBN-10 9781400866281
Release 2015-05-26
Pages 720
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This book provides the most comprehensive treatment of the theoretical concepts and modelling techniques of quantitative risk management. Whether you are a financial risk analyst, actuary, regulator or student of quantitative finance, Quantitative Risk Management gives you the practical tools you need to solve real-world problems. Describing the latest advances in the field, Quantitative Risk Management covers the methods for market, credit and operational risk modelling. It places standard industry approaches on a more formal footing and explores key concepts such as loss distributions, risk measures and risk aggregation and allocation principles. The book's methodology draws on diverse quantitative disciplines, from mathematical finance and statistics to econometrics and actuarial mathematics. A primary theme throughout is the need to satisfactorily address extreme outcomes and the dependence of key risk drivers. Proven in the classroom, the book also covers advanced topics like credit derivatives. Fully revised and expanded to reflect developments in the field since the financial crisis Features shorter chapters to facilitate teaching and learning Provides enhanced coverage of Solvency II and insurance risk management and extended treatment of credit risk, including counterparty credit risk and CDO pricing Includes a new chapter on market risk and new material on risk measures and risk aggregation



Engineering Tools for Environmental Risk Management

Engineering Tools for Environmental Risk Management Author Katalin Gruiz
ISBN-10 9781317697459
Release 2017-01-20
Pages 436
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This is the third volume of the five-volume book series “Engineering Tools for Environmental Risk Management”. The book series deals with the following topics: • Environmental deterioration and pollution, management of environmental problems • Environmental toxicology – a tool for managing chemical substances and contaminated environment • Assessment and monitoring tools, risk assessment • Risk reduction measures and technologies • Case studies for demonstration of the application of engineering tools The authors aim to describe interactions and options in risk management by providing a broad scientific overview of the environment, its human uses and the associated local, regional and global environmental problems; interpreting the holistic approach used in solving environmental protection issues; striking a balance between nature’s needs and engineering capabilities; understanding interactions between regulation, management and engineering; obtaining information about novel technologies and innovative engineering tools. This third volume provides an overview on the basic principles, concepts, practices and tools of environmental monitoring and contaminated site assessment. The volume focuses on those engineering tools that enable integrated site assessment and decision making and ensure an efficient control of the environment. Some topics supporting sustainable land use and efficient environmental management are listed below: • Efficient management and regulation of contaminated land and the environment; • Early warning and environmental monitoring; • Assessment of contaminated land: the best practices; • Environmental sampling; • Risk characterization and contaminated matrix assessment; • Integrated application of physical, chemical, biological, ecological and (eco) toxicological characterization methods; • Direct toxicity assessment (DTA) and decision making; • Online analyzers, electrodes and biosensors for assessment and monitoring of waters.; • In situ and real-time measurement tools for soil and contaminated sites; • Rapid on-site methods and contaminant and toxicity assessment kits; • Engineering tools from omics technologies, microsensors to heavy machinery; • Dynamic characterization of subsurface soil and groundwater using membrane interface probes, optical and X-ray fl uorescence and ELCAD wastewater characterization; • Geochemical modeling: methods and applications; • Environmental assessment using cyclodextrins. This book series focuses on the state of knowledge about the environment and its conscious and structured application in environmental engineering, management and decision making.



Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry

Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry Author Nicola Paltrinieri
ISBN-10 9780128038239
Release 2016-08-06
Pages 284
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Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry focuses on bridging the gap between research and industry by responding to the following questions: What are the most relevant developments of risk analysis? How can these studies help industry in the prevention of major accidents? Paltrinieri and Khan provide support for professionals who plan to improve risk analysis by introducing innovative techniques and exploiting the potential of data share and process technologies. This concrete reference within an ever-growing variety of innovations will be most helpful to process safety managers, HSE managers, safety engineers and safety engineering students. This book is divided into four parts. The Introduction provides an overview of the state-of-the-art risk analysis methods and the most up-to-date popular definitions of accident scenarios. The second section on Dynamic Risk Analysis shows the dynamic evolution of risk analysis and covers Hazard Identification, Frequency Analysis, Consequence Analysis and Establishing the Risk Picture. The third section on Interaction with Parallel Disciplines illustrates the interaction between risk analysis and other disciplines from parallel fields, such as the nuclear, the economic and the financial sectors. The final section on Dynamic Risk Management addresses risk management, which may dynamically learn from itself and improve in a spiral process leading to a resilient system. Helps dynamic analysis and management of risk in chemical and process industry Provides industry examples and techniques to assist you with risk- based decision making Addresses also the human, economic and reputational aspects composing the overall risk picture



Engineering Tools for Environmental Risk Management

Engineering Tools for Environmental Risk Management Author Katalin Gruiz
ISBN-10 9781315778778
Release 2015-04-27
Pages 566
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Chemical substances, physical agents and built structures exhibit various types of hazard due to their inherent toxic, mutagenic, carcinogenic, reprotoxic and sensitizing character or damaging to the immune and hormone system. The first steps in managing an environment contaminated by chemical substances are characterization of hazards and quantification of their risks. Chemical models — using only analytical data — are still the most widely used applications for assessing potential adverse effects and the fate and behavior of chemicals in the environment. Chemical models rely on the assumption that the adverse effect is proportional to the concentration, which in most cases is incorrect. In this volume, other models such as biological and ecological or regression models are discussed in detail and compared. Environmental risk management has two subsections: risk assessment and risk reduction. Environmental risk, to a large extent, arises from the adverse effects of chemicals and contaminated land; that is why measuring and testing these effects plays a key role in risk management. “Environmental Toxicology” deals with direct measurement of adverse effects of pure chemicals or environmental samples. This book has therefore been created specifically for engineers and gives a general overview of environmental toxicology. It provides an overview of hundreds of standardized and nonstandardized, generic and site-specific, conventional and innovative, animal and alternative test methods, and demonstrates how to apply these results to the regulation and management of environmental risk. In addition to human, aquatic and terrestrial methods for measuring toxicity, new trends in environmental analytics and the integration and complementary use of chemical analyses and the testing of effects are described. Bioavailability and accessibility as key parameters are detailed and the interactive and dynamic characterization of contaminants in soil is introduced. Emphasis is placed on the evaluation and interpretation of environmental fate and adverse effect data as well as the simulation of environmental processes and effects in microcosms and mesocosms.



Trend Qualification and Trading

Trend Qualification and Trading Author L. A. Little
ISBN-10 1118056590
Release 2011-03-23
Pages 320
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Technical analysis expert L.A. Little shows how to identify and trade big market moves Significant money can be made in the stock market by following big trends. In Trend Qualification and Trading, market technician L.A. Little explains how to identify and qualify these trends to determine the likelihood that they will continue and produce better trading results. By combining price, volume, different timeframes, and the relationship between the general market, sectors, and individual stocks, Little shows how to measure the strength of stock trends. Most importantly, he demonstrates how to determine if a trend has what it takes to develop into a major move with greater profit potential or if it is basically a false signal. Takes a proven technical approach to identifying and profiting from financial market trends Shows how to best time entries, when to take profits, and when to exit trades Introduces Little's proprietary concept, The Trading Cube, which visually combines time and trend for a given trading instrument Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, this guide will help you make more of your time in today's markets by providing an in-depth explanation of how to identify and qualify trends.



Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems

Handbook of Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems Author S Tesfamariam
ISBN-10 9780857098986
Release 2013-04-30
Pages 912
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Earthquakes represent a major risk to buildings, bridges and other civil infrastructure systems, causing catastrophic loss to modern society. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems reviews the state of the art in the seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems. Part one reviews research in the quantification of uncertainties in ground motion and seismic hazard assessment. Part twi discusses methodologies in seismic risk analysis and management, whilst parts three and four cover the application of seismic risk assessment to buildings, bridges, pipelines and other civil infrastructure systems. Part five also discusses methods for quantifying dependency between different infrastructure systems. The final part of the book considers ways of assessing financial and other losses from earthquake damage as well as setting insurance rates. Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems is an invaluable guide for professionals requiring understanding of the impact of earthquakes on buildings and lifelines, and the seismic risk assessment and management of buildings, bridges and transportation. It also provides a comprehensive overview of seismic risk analysis for researchers and engineers within these fields. This important handbook reviews the wealth of recent research in the area of seismic hazard analysis in modern earthquake design code provisions and practices Examines research into the analysis of ground motion and seismic hazard assessment, seismic risk hazard methodologies Addresses the assessment of seismic risks to buildings, bridges, water supply systems and other aspects of civil infrastructure



Nanomaterials in Chromatography

Nanomaterials in Chromatography Author Chaudhery Mustansar Hussain
ISBN-10 9780128127933
Release 2018-06-08
Pages 554
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Nanomaterials in Chromatography: Current Trends in Chromatographic Research Technology and Techniques provides recent advancements in the wide variety of chromatographic techniques applied to nanotechnology. As nanomaterials’ unique properties can improve detection sensitivity and miniaturize the devices used in analytical procedures, they can substantially affect the evaluation and analysis ability of scientists and researchers and foster exciting developments in separation science. The book includes chapters on such crucial topics as the use of nanomaterials in sample preparation and the legalization of nanomaterials, along with a section on reducing the cost of the analysis process, both in terms of chemicals and time consumption. Presents several techniques for nanomaterials in chromatography, including well-known materials like carbon nanomaterials and functionalized nanomaterials Includes suggested readings at the end of each chapter for those who need further information or specific details, from standard handbooks, to journal articles Covers not only applications of nanomaterials in chromatography, but also their environmental impact in terms of toxicity and economic effects



What Every Engineer Should Know about Reliability and Risk Analysis

What Every Engineer Should Know about Reliability and Risk Analysis Author Mohammad Modarres
ISBN-10 9781351404327
Release 2018-05-04
Pages 351
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"Examining reliability, availability, and risk analysis and reviewing in probability and statistics essential to understanding reliability methods, this outstanding volume describes day-to-day techniques used by practicing engineers -- discussing important reliability aspects of both components and complex systems. "



Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Author Marvin Rausand
ISBN-10 9781118281109
Release 2013-06-12
Pages 664
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An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.



Practical Methods of Financial Engineering and Risk Management

Practical Methods of Financial Engineering and Risk Management Author Rupak Chatterjee
ISBN-10 9781430261346
Release 2014-09-26
Pages 388
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Risk control, capital allocation, and realistic derivative pricing and hedging are critical concerns for major financial institutions and individual traders alike. Events from the collapse of Lehman Brothers to the Greek sovereign debt crisis demonstrate the urgent and abiding need for statistical tools adequate to measure and anticipate the amplitude of potential swings in the financial markets—from ordinary stock price and interest rate moves, to defaults, to those increasingly frequent "rare events" fashionably called black swan events. Yet many on Wall Street continue to rely on standard models based on artificially simplified assumptions that can lead to systematic (and sometimes catastrophic) underestimation of real risks. In Practical Methods of Financial Engineering and Risk Management, Dr. Rupak Chatterjee— former director of the multi-asset quantitative research group at Citi—introduces finance professionals and advanced students to the latest concepts, tools, valuation techniques, and analytic measures being deployed by the more discerning and responsive Wall Street practitioners, on all operational scales from day trading to institutional strategy, to model and analyze more faithfully the real behavior and risk exposure of financial markets in the cold light of the post-2008 realities. Until one masters this modern skill set, one cannot allocate risk capital properly, price and hedge derivative securities realistically, or risk-manage positions from the multiple perspectives of market risk, credit risk, counterparty risk, and systemic risk. The book assumes a working knowledge of calculus, statistics, and Excel, but it teaches techniques from statistical analysis, probability, and stochastic processes sufficient to enable the reader to calibrate probability distributions and create the simulations that are used on Wall Street to valuate various financial instruments correctly, model the risk dimensions of trading strategies, and perform the numerically intensive analysis of risk measures required by various regulatory agencies.