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The Logic Of Failure

The Logic Of Failure Author Dietrich Dorner
ISBN-10 0201479486
Release 1997-08-04
Pages 240
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Why do we make mistakes? Are there certain errors common to failure, whether in a complex enterprise or daily life? In this truly indispensable book, Dietrich Dörner identifies what he calls the “logic of failure”—certain tendencies in our patterns of thought that, while appropriate to an older, simpler world, prove disastrous for the complex world we live in now. Working with imaginative and often hilarious computer simulations, he analyzes the roots of catastrophe, showing city planners in the very act of creating gridlock and disaster, or public health authorities setting the scene for starvation. The Logic of Failure is a compass for intelligent planning and decision-making that can sharpen the skills of managers, policymakers and everyone involved in the daily challenge of getting from point A to point B.



The Logic of Failure

The Logic of Failure Author Dietrich Dörner
ISBN-10 0805041605
Release 1996
Pages 222
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Explains why and how, with our intelligence, experience, and information, humans continue to make catastrophic mistakes



The Logic of Failure

The Logic of Failure Author Dietrich Dörner
ISBN-10 0805041605
Release 1996
Pages 222
Download Link Click Here

Explains why and how, with our intelligence, experience, and information, humans continue to make catastrophic mistakes



Simplexity

Simplexity Author Jeffrey Kluger
ISBN-10 9781401395698
Release 2008-06-03
Pages 336
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Why are the instruction manuals for cell phones incomprehensible? Why is a truck driver's job as hard as a CEO's? How can 10 percent of every medical dollar cure 90 percent of the world's disease? Why do bad teams win so many games? Complexity, as any scientist will tell you, is a slippery idea. Things that seem complicated can be astoundingly simple; things that seem simple can be dizzyingly complex. A houseplant may be more intricate than a manufacturing plant. A colony of garden ants may be more complicated than a community of people. A sentence may be richer than a book, a couplet more complicated than a song. These and other paradoxes are driving a whole new science--simplexity--that is redefining how we look at the world and using that new view to improve our lives in fields as diverse as economics, biology, cosmology, chemistry, psychology, politics, child development, the arts, and more. Seen through the lens of this surprising new science, the world becomes a delicate place filled with predictable patterns--patterns we often fail to see as we're time and again fooled by our instincts, by our fear, by the size of things, and even by their beauty. In Simplexity, Time senior writer Jeffrey Kluger shows how a drinking straw can save thousands of lives; how a million cars can be on the streets but just a few hundred of them can lead to gridlock; how investors behave like atoms; how arithmetic governs abstract art and physics drives jazz; why swatting a TV indeed makes it work better. As simplexity moves from the research lab into popular consciousness it will challenge our models for modern living. Jeffrey Kluger adeptly translates newly evolving theory into a delightful theory of everything that will have you rethinking the rules of business, family, art--your world.



Monitoring Government

Monitoring Government Author Paul C. Light
ISBN-10 0815717822
Release 2011-02-01
Pages 268
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Until the Department of Housing and Urban Development scandal in 1989, the public knew little about federal inspectors general (IGs). Suddenly, Congress, the press, and the public were seeking answers to a scandal that challenged the role of the IGs in ensuring government accountability. Within days, the IGs were front-page news, and greater emphasis was placed on fraud, waste, and abuse as a measure of whether government could be held accountable. Monitoring Government offers the first systematic evaluation of the offices of inspector general OIGs and examines the government-wide investment in the IG concept. Despite their increasingly prominent, often controversial, role in the internal oversight of government, very little is known about their institutional or operational problems. To some in the executive branch, OIGs exercise too much discretion at the expense of executive control. To others in Congress, they do not have enough autonomy and responsibility. Overall the question is not only how the OIGs have functioned, but also what role they soundly play in our system of separation of powers. Paul Light begins with a brief history of the IG concept, from the passage of the 1978 IG Act to the changes in mission with new administrations. He explains the different approaches to accountability, discusses the nature of monitoring the political incentives surrounding findings and recommendations made by IGs, and looks at the dominance of compliance monitoring as the front line against fraud, waste, and abuse. The book addresses a number of specific issues regarding the policing of government. Using detailed interviews with past IGs and senior-level officials across government, as well as a case study of the Housing and Urban Development scandal, Lights examines a series of specific operational issues. Envisioning a broader role for the IG in the future, he offers recommendations to strengthen the search for accountability.



The Art of Systems Engineering

The Art of Systems Engineering Author Robert J Monson
ISBN-10 0998144223
Release 2017-01-27
Pages 1084
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This text is designed to provide a step-by-step development methodology for systems engineering. The text will allow those not familiar with the domain to work through examples and concepts, enabling them to become adept at the tools and methodologies of the systems engineering domain. This text is the only known publication that provides a how-to approach to the challenging topic of systems engineering.



Magnificent Mistakes in Mathematics

Magnificent Mistakes in Mathematics Author Alfred S. Posamentier
ISBN-10 9781616147488
Release 2013-08-13
Pages 296
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Two veteran math educators demonstrate how some "magnificent mistakes" had profound consequences for our understanding of mathematics' key concepts. In the nineteenth century, English mathematician William Shanks spent fifteen years calculating the value of pi, setting a record for the number of decimal places. Later, his calculation was reproduced using large wooden numerals to decorate the cupola of a hall in the Palais de la Découverte in Paris. However, in 1946, with the aid of a mechanical desk calculator that ran for seventy hours, it was discovered that there was a mistake in the 528th decimal place. Today, supercomputers have determined the value of pi to trillions of decimal places. This is just one of the amusing and intriguing stories about mistakes in mathematics in this layperson's guide to mathematical principles. In another example, the authors show that when we "prove" that every triangle is isosceles, we are violating a concept not even known to Euclid - that of "betweenness." And if we disregard the time-honored Pythagorean theorem, this is a misuse of the concept of infinity. Even using correct procedures can sometimes lead to absurd - but enlightening - results. Requiring no more than high-school-level math competency, this playful excursion through the nuances of math will give you a better grasp of this fundamental, all-important science. From the Hardcover edition.



The Essential Guide to Handling Workplace Harassment Discrimination

The Essential Guide to Handling Workplace Harassment   Discrimination Author Deborah C. England
ISBN-10 9781413321869
Release 2015-09-28
Pages 312
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Over 93,000 discrimination and harassment claims were filed with the EEOC in 2013, with several thousands of similar claims filed with state agencies. In these tough economic times, it's evident that more employees are considering taking their grievances to court. The Essential Guide to Handling Workplace Harassment & Discrimination,is the essential reference for human resources professionals, managers, and supervisors who are responsible for addressing and preventing harassment and discrimination problems in the workplace. Taking into consideration the practical realities of applying the law in everyday situations, this guide answers common questions that you're likely to encounter regularly. Though you'll read thorough explanations, in plain English, of the important legal principles that professionals must understand in order to deal with discrimination in the workplace, you'll also get samples, quizzes and audio scenarios that will help you to apply these principles in real-world situations. Find guidance on: what harassment is and how to stop it when and how discrimination occurs how to draft and communicate effective policies how to conduct training how to handle employee complaints and investigate claims thoroughly how to protect the company with proper documentation what to expect if an employee files a charge or lawsuit The Essential Guide to Handling Workplace Harassment & Discrimination is packed with legal strategies and information for busy managers, giving you the tools to protect your employees -- and the company -- from workplace harassment and discrimination. Interactive forms are downloadable.



Groupthink in Government

Groupthink in Government Author Paul ‘t Hart
ISBN-10 0801848903
Release 1994-09-01
Pages 321
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Why do groups of talented and experienced individuals make disastrously bad collective judgments, such as the Kennedy administration's flawed decision to proceed with the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961? In his pioneering research on collective decision making, Irving Janis introduced the concept of "groupthink"—a deliberately Orwellian neologism—to describe such occurrences. Now, in the first book-length study of groupthink since Janis's work, Paul 't Hart has provided a rigorous and systematic version of this influential theory which opens several new avenues for research.



The Systems Bible

The Systems Bible Author John Gall
ISBN-10 9780961825171
Release 2002-01-01
Pages 314
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Being the Third Edition of Systemantics, extensively revised and expanded by the addition of several new Chapters including new Axioms, Theorems, and Rules of Thumb, together with many new Case Histories and Horrible Examples.



Architect of Soviet Victory in World War II

Architect of Soviet Victory in World War II Author Richard W. Harrison
ISBN-10 9780786456673
Release 2010-03-26
Pages 411
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The Red Army’s leading operational theorist in the 1930s, Georgii Samoilovich Isserson was the mastermind behind the “deep operation”—the cornerstone of Soviet offensive operations in World War II. Drawing from an in-depth analysis of Isserson’s numerous published and unpublished works, his arrest file in the former KGB archives, and interviews with his family, this book provides the first full-length biography of the man. The bulk of the narrative deals with the flowering of his intellectual talents from 1929 through 1941. Additional chapters deal with Isserson’s arrest and his remaining 35 years, 14 of which were spent in labor camps and internal exile.



Lessons in Disaster

Lessons in Disaster Author Gordon M. Goldstein
ISBN-10 9781466852112
Release 2013-09-03
Pages 320
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A revelatory look at the decisions that led to the U.S. involvement in Vietnam, drawing on the insights and reassessments of one of the war's architects "I had a part in a great failure. I made mistakes of perception, recommendation and execution. If I have learned anything I should share it." These are not words that Americans ever expected to hear from McGeorge Bundy, the national security adviser to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson. But in the last years of his life, Bundy—the only principal architect of Vietnam strategy to have maintained his public silence—decided to revisit the decisions that had led to war and to look anew at the role he played. He enlisted the collaboration of the political scientist Gordon M. Goldstein, and together they explored what happened and what might have been. With Bundy's death in 1996, that manuscript could not be completed, but Goldstein has built on their collaboration in an original and provocative work of presidential history that distills the essential lessons of America's involvement in Vietnam. Drawing on Goldstein's prodigious research as well as the interviews and analysis he conducted with Bundy, Lessons in Disaster is a historical tour de force on the uses and misuses of American power. And in our own era, in the wake of presidential decisions that propelled the United States into another war under dubious pretexts, these lessons offer instructive guidance that we must heed if we are not to repeat the mistakes of the past.



Normal Accidents

Normal Accidents Author Charles Perrow
ISBN-10 140082849X
Release 2011-10-12
Pages 464
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Normal Accidents analyzes the social side of technological risk. Charles Perrow argues that the conventional engineering approach to ensuring safety--building in more warnings and safeguards--fails because systems complexity makes failures inevitable. He asserts that typical precautions, by adding to complexity, may help create new categories of accidents. (At Chernobyl, tests of a new safety system helped produce the meltdown and subsequent fire.) By recognizing two dimensions of risk--complex versus linear interactions, and tight versus loose coupling--this book provides a powerful framework for analyzing risks and the organizations that insist we run them. The first edition fulfilled one reviewer's prediction that it "may mark the beginning of accident research." In the new afterword to this edition Perrow reviews the extensive work on the major accidents of the last fifteen years, including Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Challenger disaster. The new postscript probes what the author considers to be the "quintessential 'Normal Accident'" of our time: the Y2K computer problem.



Inside NASA

Inside NASA Author Howard E. McCurdy
ISBN-10 UOM:39015020861483
Release 1993
Pages 215
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The National Aeronautics and Space Administration began its space flight program in October of 1958 by launching the 84-pound Pioneer I space probe. Scarcely a decade later, in July of 1969, NASA amazed the world by landing the first humans on the Moon. In the two decades that followed, however, the agency appeared to lose both its vigor and its creativity. Inside NASA explores how an agency praised for its planetary probes and expeditions to the Moon became noted for the explosion of the space shuttle Challenger and a series of other malfunctions. Using archival evidence as well as in-depth interviews with space agency officials, Howard McCurdy investigates the relationship between the performance of the U.S. space program and NASA's organizational culture. He begins by identifying the beliefs, norms, and practices that guided NASA's early successes. Originally, the agency was dominated by the strong technical culture rooted in the research-and-development organizations from which NASA was formed. To launch the expeditions to the Moon, McCurdy explains, this technical culture was linked to an organizational structure borrowed from the Air Force Ballistic Missile Program. Over time, however, changes imposed to accomplish the lunar expedition - as well as the normal aging process and increased bureaucracy in the government as a whole-altered NASA's original culture and eroded its technical strength. McCurdy observes that NASA's early success depended on a number of related characteristics: extensive testing, in-house technical capability, hands-on experience, exceptional people, stoic acceptance of risk and failure, and a frontier mentality. He concludes that, given the conditions ofmodern government, the performance of high-technology agencies like NASA inherently tends to decline. Inside NASA offers a revealing study of both organizational culture and bureaucratic aging.



Drift into Failure

Drift into Failure Author Sidney Dekker
ISBN-10 9781351942911
Release 2016-12-05
Pages 234
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What does the collapse of sub-prime lending have in common with a broken jackscrew in an airliner’s tailplane? Or the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico with the burn-up of Space Shuttle Columbia? These were systems that drifted into failure. While pursuing success in a dynamic, complex environment with limited resources and multiple goal conflicts, a succession of small, everyday decisions eventually produced breakdowns on a massive scale. We have trouble grasping the complexity and normality that gives rise to such large events. We hunt for broken parts, fixable properties, people we can hold accountable. Our analyses of complex system breakdowns remain depressingly linear, depressingly componential - imprisoned in the space of ideas once defined by Newton and Descartes. The growth of complexity in society has outpaced our understanding of how complex systems work and fail. Our technologies have gotten ahead of our theories. We are able to build things - deep-sea oil rigs, jackscrews, collateralized debt obligations - whose properties we understand in isolation. But in competitive, regulated societies, their connections proliferate, their interactions and interdependencies multiply, their complexities mushroom. This book explores complexity theory and systems thinking to understand better how complex systems drift into failure. It studies sensitive dependence on initial conditions, unruly technology, tipping points, diversity - and finds that failure emerges opportunistically, non-randomly, from the very webs of relationships that breed success and that are supposed to protect organizations from disaster. It develops a vocabulary that allows us to harness complexity and find new ways of managing drift.



The Escape Artists

The Escape Artists Author Noam Scheiber
ISBN-10 9781439172414
Release 2012-09-04
Pages 351
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"A book by Noam Scheiber"--



The Limits of Safety

The Limits of Safety Author Scott Douglas Sagan
ISBN-10 9780691021010
Release 1995
Pages 286
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Environmental tragedies such as Chernobyl, the Exxon Valdez, and Bhopal remind us that catastrophic accidents are always possible in a modern world full of hazardous technologies. Yet, the safety record appears to be extraordinarily good with nuclear weapons, the most dangerous technology of all. This safety record has led scholars, policy-makers, and the public alike to believe that nuclear weapons can serve as a safe and secure deterrent into the foreseeable future in the post-Cold War era. In this provocative and path-breaking book, Scott Sagan challenges such optimistic beliefs. Sagan's painstaking research into formerly classified archives penetrates the veil of safety that has surrounded U.S. nuclear weapons operations. Guided by theories of reliability in complex organizations, Sagan has uncovered a hidden history of frightening "close calls" to disaster: lost nuclear-armed bombers fly into the Russian warning net, Air Force officers tamper with missiles to be able to launch them without orders, B-52 bombers crash with thermonuclear weapons aboard and then vanish from the official histories, an unstable pilot deliberately turns on the two arming switches on his aircraft's nuclear bombs, and false warnings during the Cuban missile crisis lead pilots and radar operators to believe that the United States is under nuclear attack. Incomprehension, political maneuvering, and even cover-ups have limited what we have learned from these dangerous incidents, and Sagan maintains that many hidden bugs in the system remain. While the risk of deliberate nuclear war has been reduced with the end of the Cold War, the risk of serious accidents, even accidental war, remains unacceptably high. The inheritance of nuclear missiles by Soviet successor states, the continuing spread of the bomb to developing nations, and misplaced confidence in the safety of our own arsenal should produce deep concerns. Unless we radically change the posture of our nuclear arsenal, over the long run, when we least expect it, a serious accident will occur. The key factors that scholars believe lead to high organizational reliability - redundant back-up systems, personnel discipline, and trial-and-error learning - have not produced a safe nuclear arsenal. This book therefore challenges our beliefs, not only about nuclear weapons safety, but also about our ability to control the many other hazardous technologies on which modern society is based.