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 If you know how to program with Python and also know a little about probability, you’re ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical notation, and use discrete probability distributions instead of continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer, and you’ll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but not many resources are available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen Downey, this book’s computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your existing programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, M&Ms, Dungeons & Dragons dice, paintball, and hockey Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems, such as interpreting SAT scores, simulating kidney tumors, and modeling the human microbiome.

 If you know how to program with Python and also know a little about probability, you’re ready to tackle Bayesian statistics. With this book, you'll learn how to solve statistical problems with Python code instead of mathematical notation, and use discrete probability distributions instead of continuous mathematics. Once you get the math out of the way, the Bayesian fundamentals will become clearer, and you’ll begin to apply these techniques to real-world problems. Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but not many resources are available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen Downey, this book’s computational approach helps you get a solid start. Use your existing programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statistics Work with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and hypothesis testing Get started with simple examples, using coins, M&Ms, Dungeons & Dragons dice, paintball, and hockey Learn computational methods for solving real-world problems, such as interpreting SAT scores, simulating kidney tumors, and modeling the human microbiome.

 Shows you how to perform statistical analysis computationally, rather than mathematically, with programs written in Python -- Back cover.

 Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

 In this richly illustrated book, a range of accessible examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a natural consequence of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for the novice who wishes to become familiar with the basic principles of Bayesian analysis.

 Complexity science uses computation to explore the physical and social sciences. In Think Complexity, you’ll use graphs, cellular automata, and agent-based models to study topics in physics, biology, and economics. Whether you’re an intermediate-level Python programmer or a student of computational modeling, you’ll delve into examples of complex systems through a series of worked examples, exercises, case studies, and easy-to-understand explanations. In this updated second edition, you will: Work with NumPy arrays and SciPy methods, including basic signal processing and Fast Fourier Transform Study abstract models of complex physical systems, including power laws, fractals and pink noise, and Turing machines Get Jupyter notebooks filled with starter code and solutions to help you re-implement and extend original experiments in complexity; and models of computation like Turmites, Turing machines, and cellular automata Explore the philosophy of science, including the nature of scientific laws, theory choice, and realism and instrumentalism Ideal as a text for a course on computational modeling in Python, Think Complexity also helps self-learners gain valuable experience with topics and ideas they might not encounter otherwise.

 If you understand basic mathematics and know how to program with Python, you’re ready to dive into signal processing. While most resources start with theory to teach this complex subject, this practical book introduces techniques by showing you how they’re applied in the real world. In the first chapter alone, you’ll be able to decompose a sound into its harmonics, modify the harmonics, and generate new sounds. Author Allen Downey explains techniques such as spectral decomposition, filtering, convolution, and the Fast Fourier Transform. This book also provides exercises and code examples to help you understand the material. You’ll explore: Periodic signals and their spectrums Harmonic structure of simple waveforms Chirps and other sounds whose spectrum changes over time Noise signals and natural sources of noise The autocorrelation function for estimating pitch The discrete cosine transform (DCT) for compression The Fast Fourier Transform for spectral analysis Relating operations in time to filters in the frequency domain Linear time-invariant (LTI) system theory Amplitude modulation (AM) used in radio Other books in this series include Think Stats and Think Bayes, also by Allen Downey.

 Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as well as how it contrasts with the conventional approach. The theory is built up step by step, and important notions such as sufficiency are brought out of a discussion of the salient features of specific examples. This edition: Includes expanded coverage of Gibbs sampling, including more numerical examples and treatments of OpenBUGS, R2WinBUGS and R2OpenBUGS. Presents significant new material on recent techniques such as Bayesian importance sampling, variational Bayes, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). Provides extensive examples throughout the book to complement the theory presented. Accompanied by a supporting website featuring new material and solutions. More and more students are realizing that they need to learn Bayesian statistics to meet their academic and professional goals. This book is best suited for use as a main text in courses on Bayesian statistics for third and fourth year undergraduates and postgraduate students.

 If you want to learn how to program, working with Python is an excellent way to start. This hands-on guide takes you through the language a step at a time, beginning with basic programming concepts before moving on to functions, recursion, data structures, and object-oriented design. This second edition and its supporting code have been updated for Python 3. Through exercises in each chapter, you’ll try out programming concepts as you learn them. Think Python is ideal for students at the high school or college level, as well as self-learners, home-schooled students, and professionals who need to learn programming basics. Beginners just getting their feet wet will learn how to start with Python in a browser. Start with the basics, including language syntax and semantics Get a clear definition of each programming concept Learn about values, variables, statements, functions, and data structures in a logical progression Discover how to work with files and databases Understand objects, methods, and object-oriented programming Use debugging techniques to fix syntax, runtime, and semantic errors Explore interface design, data structures, and GUI-based programs through case studies

 This is an introduction to Bayesian statistics and decision theory, including advanced topics such as Monte Carlo methods. This new edition contains several revised chapters and a new chapter on model choice.

 Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds readers’ knowledge of and confidence in statistical modeling. Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today’s model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work. The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation. By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling. Web Resource The book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author’s website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

 This book covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. The entire text, including all the figures and numerical results, is reproducible using the Python codes and their associated Jupyter/IPython notebooks, which are provided as supplementary downloads. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, and Scikit-learn are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowledge of Python programming.