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Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets Author Annie Duke
ISBN-10 9780735216358
Release 2018
Pages 288
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Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time: there's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. Duke shows readers how to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? As a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, she draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions.



Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets Author Annie Duke
ISBN-10 9780735216365
Release 2018-02-06
Pages 288
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Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.



Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets Author Annie Duke
ISBN-10 0735216371
Release 2019-05-07
Pages 288
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A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.



Little Bets

Little Bets Author Peter Sims
ISBN-10 9781439170434
Release 2013-07-16
Pages 213
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Lays out strategies for harnessing one's creativity for greater success, drawing on the wisdom of more than two hundred creative thinkers, including Steve Jobs and Chris Rock.



The Poker Face of Wall Street

The Poker Face of Wall Street Author Aaron Brown
ISBN-10 9781118161104
Release 2011-08-26
Pages 368
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Wall Street is where poker and modern finance?and the theory behind these "games"?clash head on. In both worlds, real risk means real money is made or lost in a heart beat, and neither camp is always rational with the risk it takes. As a result, business and financial professionals who want to use poker insights to improve their job performance will find this entertaining book a "must read." So will poker players searching for an edge in applying the insights of risk-takers on Wall Street.



Think Twice

Think Twice Author Michael J. Mauboussin
ISBN-10 9781422155547
Release 2012-11-06
Pages 224
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No matter your field, industry, or specialty, as a leader you make a series of crucial decisions every single day. And the harsh truth is that the majority of decisions—no matter how good the intentions behind them—are mismanaged, resulting in a huge toll on organizations, the people they employ, and even the people they serve. So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts. Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.



Winning Without Thinking

Winning Without Thinking Author Nick Mordin
ISBN-10 1904328148
Release 2006-10
Pages 426
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Nick Mordin estimates he has spent over 30,000 hours researching racing results over the years. His aim has been to uncover the principles that govern the betting market and racing results themselves. In conducting his research Nick has tested thousands of systems, both his own and those developed by academics, professional gamblers and others around the globe. In Winning Without Thinking he shares the fruits of this work. the results of horse-races; basic principles that govern racing results and the betting market; mistakes commonly made by the general betting public and how to exploit them; full details of betting systems used by professional gamblers to make millions; how to predict and profit from new trends; and how to use computers to increase your returns.



Unsafe Thinking

Unsafe Thinking Author Jonah Sachs
ISBN-10 9780738220154
Release 2018-04-24
Pages 256
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Learn how to take the bold yet intelligent risks that will help you thrive in business--and in life. How can you challenge and change yourself when you need it most? We're creatures of habit, programmed by evolution to favor the safe and familiar, especially when the stakes are high. This bias no longer serves us in a world of constant change. In fact, today, safe thinking has become extremely dangerous. Through stories of trailblazers in business, health, education and activism, and leveraging decades of research into creativity and performance, Jonah Sachs reveals a path to higher performance and creativity for anyone ready to step out of their comfort zone. He introduces troublemakers willing to challenge corporate culture like the executive who convinced CVS to drop its multibillion-dollar tobacco business. She now leads the pharmacy giant. Readers will get firsthand accounts of breaking from the status quo from a Nobel prize winning doctor who nearly got himself thrown out medicine, a two-time NBA championship coach who brought joy back to his team by tuning down the focus on competition, a CEO who rebuilt her reputation and life from the ashes from one of the biggest flops in internet history and a Colombian mayor who started an incredibly successful career of political reform by mooning an angry crowd. Unsafe Thinking is full of counter-intuitive insights that will challenge you to rethink how you work. You'll learn: Why your area of deep expertise is often where you'll find your biggest blind spots Why anxiety can be fuel for creativity When to trust intuition and when to challenge it How collaborating only with those that share your values stunts your creativity How to build an organization that embraces intelligent risk. An inspiring and accessible read, Unsafe Thinking has the power to change both the way you approach your work and your life.



Summary of Annie Duke s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Summary of Annie Duke   s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media Author Milkyway Media
ISBN-10
Release 2018-09-06
Pages 39
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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.



The Perfect Bet

The Perfect Bet Author Adam Kucharski
ISBN-10 9780465098590
Release 2016-02-23
Pages 288
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For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.



Head First Statistics

Head First Statistics Author Dawn Griffiths
ISBN-10 9780596800864
Release 2008-08-26
Pages 716
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Wouldn't it be great if there were a statistics book that made histograms, probability distributions, and chi square analysis more enjoyable than going to the dentist? Head First Statistics brings this typically dry subject to life, teaching you everything you want and need to know about statistics through engaging, interactive, and thought-provoking material, full of puzzles, stories, quizzes, visual aids, and real-world examples. Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics so you can understand key points and actually use them. Learn to present data visually with charts and plots; discover the difference between taking the average with mean, median, and mode, and why it's important; learn how to calculate probability and expectation; and much more. Head First Statistics is ideal for high school and college students taking statistics and satisfies the requirements for passing the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Exam. With this book, you'll: Study the full range of topics covered in first-year statistics Tackle tough statistical concepts using Head First's dynamic, visually rich format proven to stimulate learning and help you retain knowledge Explore real-world scenarios, ranging from casino gambling to prescription drug testing, to bring statistical principles to life Discover how to measure spread, calculate odds through probability, and understand the normal, binomial, geometric, and Poisson distributions Conduct sampling, use correlation and regression, do hypothesis testing, perform chi square analysis, and more Before you know it, you'll not only have mastered statistics, you'll also see how they work in the real world. Head First Statistics will help you pass your statistics course, and give you a firm understanding of the subject so you can apply the knowledge throughout your life.



Decide to Play Great Poker

Decide to Play Great Poker Author Annie Duke
ISBN-10 9781935396321
Release 2011-07-01
Pages 464
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Poker is a game of table position, flop texture, players in a hand, personalities, and so much more. This book teaches you how to identify and analyze those variables, become a great strategist, and have confidence in any poker situation. Decide to Play Great Poker is written by Annie Duke, the world's most renowned woman poker player, with John Vorhaus, himself a winning poker player and prolific author.



Think Wrong

Think Wrong Author John Bielenberg
ISBN-10 0692693327
Release 2016-08-01
Pages
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Over the years, we have partnered with some of the most radical, outrageous, experimental people in the world, and we've witnessed first hand the power of thinking wrong. We've seen seemingly crazy ideas yield incredible results, and we have endeavored to study and understand the secrets and actions of those who successfully operate outside the predictable expectations of business and of culture. We began to see a connection in how these people behave and make decisions, in how they communicate their work, and in whom they deflect from the status quo. Our gut told us something was going on here. Wrong Thinkers were able to overcome obstacles both in themselves and in the culture at large to achieve exceptional results. We have since identified important moments when, for the rest of us, the flame of possibility gets extinguished. We have developed six Think Wrong Practices that simultaneously advance compelling solutions while defending them from attacks by well-meaning Right Thinkers.We also see tha conviction, determination, and persistence alone are not enough to escape the status quo, or those hell-bent to protect it. Thinking right already has its language and its tools; it's already got its best practices, defenses, and case studies. In the think-right world of brainstorming, focus groups, marketing surveys, number crunching, bottom -lines, and ROI-focused agendas, it's hard to defend something nebulous and new. Wrong thinkers need their own language, frameworks, tools, and techniques to counter the existing norms. This book is our attempt to arm you--and people everywhere--so you may conceive the inconceivable and bring along others to help implement your status-quo-busting solutions.In the coming chapters, you'll learn about the six Think Wrong Practices that we have developed over the past two decades. These practices are particularly effective at key moments when right thinking tries to stop you.



How to Be Ultra Spiritual

How to Be Ultra Spiritual Author JP Sears
ISBN-10 9781622038220
Release 2017-03-07
Pages 264
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Welcome to the Glorious Grandeur of Ultra Spirituality In case you haven’t noticed, the New Age has become the Old Age. But don’t recycle your crystals just yet! His Enlightenedness JP Sears is ushering in the Newer Age, blinding us with the dawn-like brilliance that is Ultra Spirituality. How to Be Ultra Spiritual presents Ultra Spiritual JP’s none-of-a-kind guidance, so you can better yourself through teachings on: • Competitive spirituality—the Ultra Spiritual foundation that the rest of your Ultra Spiritual path rests on • Why burying your feelings alive makes you thrive • Dreaming up your awakening—how to engineer your carefully contrived spiritual narrative • Rigidly yogic yoga—the moisture-filled cloud formation that drops rain upon your river so your flow can flow • Following the light to the greener spiritual pastures of veganism • He-ness, financial levity, deathliness, and other qualities of the quality guru • Mindfullessness—all of the fullness of mindfulness with none of the mind • Merciless meditation—the most effective way to become more meditative (and, duh, more spiritual) • Accessing the forces of critical nonjudgment • Using plant spirit medicine to experience a degree of enlightenment that you aren’t enlightened enough to experience without the spirit who lives inside its particular vegetation • Humbleness, and how to employ it in the most superior sense of the word With How to Be Ultra Spiritual, His Enlightenedness JP Sears brings the heart and soul of ancient spirituality back to life with a progressive aggression, replacing the diluted uselessness of modern spirituality with the waaay more spiritual wisdom of Ultra Spirituality. See if you can keep up . . .



But what If We re Wrong

But what If We re Wrong Author Chuck Klosterman
ISBN-10 9780399184130
Release 2017-04-25
Pages 288
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"But What If We're Wrong? visualizes the contemporary world as it will appear to those who'll perceive it as the distant past"--



How to Read a Book

How to Read a Book Author Mortimer J. Adler
ISBN-10 9781476790152
Release 2014-09-30
Pages 448
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Analyzes the art of reading and suggests ways to approach literary works, offering techniques for reading in specific literary genres ranging from fiction, poetry, and plays to scientific and philosophical works.



Design Thinking for the Greater Good

Design Thinking for the Greater Good Author Jeanne Liedtka
ISBN-10 9780231545853
Release 2017-09-05
Pages 342
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Facing especially wicked problems, social sector organizations are searching for powerful new methods to understand and address them. Design Thinking for the Greater Good goes in depth on both the how of using new tools and the why. As a way to reframe problems, ideate solutions, and iterate toward better answers, design thinking is already well established in the commercial world. Through ten stories of struggles and successes in fields such as health care, education, agriculture, transportation, social services, and security, the authors show how collaborative creativity can shake up even the most entrenched bureaucracies—and provide a practical roadmap for readers to implement these tools. The design thinkers Jeanne Liedtka, Randy Salzman, and Daisy Azer explore how major agencies like the Department of Health and Human Services and the Transportation and Security Administration in the United States, as well as organizations in Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom, have instituted principles of design thinking. In each case, these groups have used the tools of design thinking to reduce risk, manage change, use resources more effectively, bridge the communication gap between parties, and manage the competing demands of diverse stakeholders. Along the way, they have improved the quality of their products and enhanced the experiences of those they serve. These strategies are accessible to analytical and creative types alike, and their benefits extend throughout an organization. This book will help today's leaders and thinkers implement these practices in their own pursuit of creative solutions that are both innovative and achievable.