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Uncertainty and Risk

Uncertainty and Risk Author Gabriele Bammer
ISBN-10 9781136549854
Release 2012-05-04
Pages 400
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This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.

Uncertainty and Risk

Uncertainty and Risk Author Mohammed Abdellaoui
ISBN-10 9783540489351
Release 2007-08-10
Pages 308
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This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.

Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols

Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk  United Nations World Water Development Report  4  3 Vols  Author UNESCO
ISBN-10 9789231042355
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Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols has been writing in one form or another for most of life. You can find so many inspiration from Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols also informative, and entertaining. Click DOWNLOAD or Read Online button to get full Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk United Nations World Water Development Report 4 3 Vols book for free.

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

Uncertainty in Risk Assessment Author Terje Aven
ISBN-10 9781118763063
Release 2013-12-17
Pages 200
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Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk Author M. B. A. van Asselt
ISBN-10 0792366565
Release 2000-09-30
Pages 434
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This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Uncertainty in risk assessment risk management and decision making

Uncertainty in risk assessment  risk management  and decision making Author Vincent T. Covello
ISBN-10 UOM:39015012290600
Release 1987
Pages 538
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Uncertainty in risk assessment risk management and decision making has been writing in one form or another for most of life. You can find so many inspiration from Uncertainty in risk assessment risk management and decision making also informative, and entertaining. Click DOWNLOAD or Read Online button to get full Uncertainty in risk assessment risk management and decision making book for free.

Policy uncertainty and risk

Policy uncertainty and risk Author Tomas Hellström
ISBN-10 0792372344
Release 2001
Pages 135
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Policy Uncertainty and Risk presents a contribution to risk analysis and risk management in public policy and management at large. Special emphasis is put on the utilization of scientific knowledge by decision-makers in instances where knowledge in both spheres of science and administration is highly uncertain and contested. The book therefore contributes a model of science-practitioner interaction in a policy area of strong current relevance. The perspective is a realist constructivist one, which means that risk and policy are taken to be socially predicated insofar as we can choose and change the way we define and interact with its practices. It is realist insofar as we continually use such constructions to re-define and re-structure the world we live in. Although essentially theory-driven and conceptually oriented, the authors develop their argument for a new interpretation of policy-relevant science through a number of pressing case studies. These studies include the recent BSE/CJD crises in the UK, the introduction of Marine Protected Areas in Sweden, and the current practices surrounding risk management in corporate bodies. Drawing on empirical cases and theoretical explication, the book provides a number of suggestions as to how risk analysis and risk management may be more properly conceived of both from a practitioner as well as from an academic point of view.

Uncertainty in the risk assessment of environmental and occupational hazards

Uncertainty in the risk assessment of environmental and occupational hazards Author A. John Bailer
ISBN-10 UVA:X004419545
Release 1999-12
Pages 377
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This volume deals with many aspects of uncertainty in risk assessment, including its origins, its general magnitude, and its implications for public policy. For the most part, the authors present real examples with real data. The 26 papers discuss the uncertainties of hazard identification, exposure assessment, does- response modeling, and risk characterization and communication. Topics include risk assessment for children and other sensitive populations, mega-experiments to identify and assess diffuse carcinogenic risks, uncertainty in biomonitoring and kinetic modeling, characterization of uncertainty and variability in residential radon cancer, distributions of individual susceptibility among humans for toxic effects, and reducing uncertainty in the derivation of health guidance values. No subject index.

Risk Uncertainty and Profit

Risk  Uncertainty and Profit Author Frank H. Knight
ISBN-10 9780486147932
Release 2012-03-09
Pages 448
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DIVThis enduring economics text provided the theoretical basis of the entrepreneurial American economy during the post-industrial era. A revolutionary work, it taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk and uncertainty. /div

Investment Risk and Uncertainty

Investment Risk and Uncertainty Author Steven P. Greiner
ISBN-10 9781118421413
Release 2013-03-14
Pages 608
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Valuable insights on the major methods used in today's asset and risk management arena Risk management has moved to the forefront of asset management since the credit crisis. However, most coverage of this subject is overly complicated, misunderstood, and extremely hard to apply. That's why Steven Greiner—a financial professional with over twenty years of quantitative and modeling experience—has written Investment Risk and Uncertainty. With this book, he skillfully reduces the complexity of risk management methodologies applied across many asset classes through practical examples of when to use what. Along the way, Greiner explores how particular methods can lower risk and mitigate losses. He also discusses how to stress test your portfolio and remove the exposure to regular risks and those from "Black Swan" events. More than just an explanation of specific risk issues, this reliable resource provides practical "off-the-shelf" applications that will allow the intelligent investor to understand their risks, their sources, and how to hedge those risks. Covers modern methods applied in risk management for many different asset classes Details the risk measurements of truly multi-asset class portfolios, while bridging the gap for managers in various disciplines—from equity and fixed income investors to currency and commodity investors Examines risk management algorithms for multi-asset class managers as well as risk managers, addressing new compliance issues and how to meet them The theory of risk management is hardly ever spelled out in practical applications that portfolio managers, pension fund advisors, and consultants can make use of. This book fills that void and will put you in a better position to confidently face the investment risks and uncertainties found in today's dynamic markets.

Risk Uncertainty and Rational Action

Risk  Uncertainty and Rational Action Author Carlo C. Jaeger
ISBN-10 9781134203024
Release 2013-11-05
Pages 320
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Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association

Managing the Unknown

Managing the Unknown Author Christoph H. Loch
ISBN-10 9781118276822
Release 2011-11-30
Pages 304
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Managing the Unknown offers a new way of looking at the problem of managing projects in novel and unknown environments. From Europe's leading business school, this book shows how to manage two fundamental approaches that, in combination, offer the possibility of coping with unforeseen influences that inevitably arise in novel projects: * Trial-and-Error Learning allows for redefining the plan and the project as the project unfolds * Selectionism pursues multiple, independent trials in order to pick the best one at the end Managing the Unknown offers expert guidelines to the specific project mindsets, infrastructures, and management methods required to use these project management approaches and achieve success in spite of unforeseen obstacles. This book equips readers with: * Causal explanations of why unforeseeable factors in novel projects make traditional project planning and project risk management insufficient * Directly applicable management tools that help managers to guide novel and high-uncertainty projects * Real-world case studies of both successful and unsuccessful approaches to managing high uncertainty in novel projects

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards Author Jonathan Rougier
ISBN-10 9781107006195
Release 2013-02-21
Pages 574
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A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.

Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration

Geological Risk and Uncertainty in Oil Exploration Author Ian Lerche
ISBN-10 0124441742
Release 1997
Pages 658
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The oil industry seeks better methods of managing financial risk. This book attempts to answer this need by identifying the various uncertainties associated with basin analysis and incorporating this information into probabilistic models of basin evolution in relation to oil accumulation. Oil and gas explorationists, strategic resource economists, and petroleum professionals who deal with scientific uncertainty and risk issues should benefit from the book's systematic treatment of how to quantify the uncertainty associated with a variety of geological, geophysical, and geochemical problems. The origin of uncertainties associated with flexural plate motion models, dynamical models of sediment evolution, thermal models of sediment maturation, hydrocarbon kinetic models, fault models, and models of basinal sediment fill and turbidite flows are detailed in the first section. The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basic evolution and behaviour constitutes the second half of the book.

The Natural and the Social

The Natural and the Social Author Lipton Michael
ISBN-10 9781136891526
Release 2015-04-17
Pages 192
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The age in which people in the West have treated society and nature as essentially separate matters is at an end. Environmental change and degradation impinge on all our lives, and even our genes are increasingly seen by employers and insurers as commodities. The Natural and the Social draws on insights from across the social sciences to examine the changing character of these interrelations between society and nature. Individual chapters look in depth at genes, environments and human development, medical practices and health, and the management of environmental risk. Throughout students are encouraged to draw on their own experiences to understand the theoretical and practical problems of living in this new natural-and-social world. This exciting and original text will be essential reading for anyone who wants to understand more clearly the role and limitations of technological and scientific progress in contemporary society.

Risk Uncertainty and Decision Making in Property

Risk  Uncertainty and Decision Making in Property Author P. Byrne
ISBN-10 9781135821265
Release 2002-11-01
Pages 176
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Provides undergraduates in surveying and property professionals with a clear practical explanation of the various management techniques to improve their property development decisions.

Risk Uncertainty and Government

Risk  Uncertainty and Government Author Pat O'Malley
ISBN-10 9781135311797
Release 2012-09-10
Pages 224
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Both risk and uncertainty are neo-liberal concepts, which can be viewed as complementary techniques for governing diverse aspects of life, rather than natural states of things. This new book examines the way these constructs govern the production of wealth through 'uncertain' speculation and 'calculable' investment formulae. The way in which risk and uncertainty govern the minimisation of harms through insurance and through the uncertain practices of 'reasonable foresight' is discussed, and O Malley looks at the way these same techniques were historically forged out of moral and social beliefs about how to govern properly. In addition, the book analyzes is how, during this process, ideas such as 'contract' and distinctions between insurance and gambling were invented to order to 'properly' govern the risky and uncertain future.